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TechCheck

Why a stronger dollar could spell trouble for Big Tech 02/06/25

TechCheck

CNBC

Disruptors, Investing, Faang, Technology, Business, Management, Cnbc, Tech

4.856 Ratings

🗓️ 6 February 2025

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The dollar is up nearly 5% over the past six months, causing headwinds for tech giants who make a substantial portion of their revenue overseas. We look at what the shift means and what we’re hearing about it from the Magnificent 7 as they report earnings.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Dollar dipping slightly for the week, but up close to 5% in the last six months.

0:06.3

That's a trend that is proving to be a headwin for some mega cap earnings this quarter so far.

0:11.3

Our dear Dubosa is looking ahead to the potential impact on Amazon tonight.

0:15.3

And today's tech check. Morning, Dee.

0:16.8

Hey, good morning, Carl.

0:17.8

So the magnificent seven, of course, they generate substantial portions of their revenue overseas.

0:22.6

So when the dollar strengthens as it has, those foreign sales translate into fewer U.S. dollars when they report that hits earnings.

0:29.3

We've seen that from Meta, Microsoft, and Google a few nights ago, it's likely to be a headwind when Amazon reports tonight.

0:36.2

But Forks headwinds, they will impact Big Tech to varying

0:38.7

degrees. Here's where each of their international revenue exposure stands and how it has changed

0:44.5

over the last year. Now, as you can see, and we'll pull up this graphic, Apple and Meta, they are

0:50.3

actually the most exposed in terms of how much revenue they generate abroad, nearly two-thirds for both of them.

0:56.1

Nvidia is next with more than half of its revenue derived internationally, but it's

1:00.7

also seen the most change in that makeup.

1:03.7

Last year, it increased its U.S. revenue exposure by 44% year-over-year, thanks to

1:09.7

export controls and the hypers' enormous ramp in CAPX.

1:14.0

Amazon actually has the least exposure with just about 30% of sales coming from abroad.

1:19.9

These numbers, by the way, are from FACCET.

1:21.7

Still, continue dollar strength could significantly impact guidance like it did for

1:26.1

Meta Microsoft and Google. And what may be

1:28.3

different this time are those elevated levels of trade uncertainty introduced by the new Trump

1:33.2

administration. The U.S. dollar has seen as a safe haven amid those tensions. And that's certainly

...

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