Hello from Washington. I'm Chuck Todd and this is the Chuck Todd cast. So my

guest today's going to be Nathan Gonzales. He's of course the editor and

publisher of Inside Elections. He's going to join me to talk

about something funny I think we're going to see in polling this year. This is the

lead of my column which is you know we may not see a lot of movement for six months

I think we're it is more likely than not if you think about the last group of voters who are going to decide. We know 90% of the electorate

already knows who they're voting for, but that last 10% isn't. And if they don't

like their choices, they're not, don't expect them to make their decision in June.

When you don't like to do something, think back to that time that you didn't turn in an assignment

until the very last minute in college or high school or frankly for work or whatever it is, when you don't want to do something you wait

till the extraordinarily last minute. So the point is this, be very careful getting too

hyped up over any horse race poll you see between now and

October 1st. I think we are not going to start to see people move until then because

that's when voting is going to begin, right? We know starting on October 1st people actually start

start voting though the first voters are usually the ones that already know how

they're going to vote. But the point is is that I am I am not I wouldn't get

even exercised when you start to see you you know, it's certainly worth seeing who's

undecided, who's still sitting and undecided, which campaign is struggling with their base swing

voters, right? There's two types of swing voters like I'm always

concerned about. Those that do vacillate between the two parties, that's under 10%

of the electorate. And then there's the larger group of swing voters, people that swing

between voting and not voting.

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