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Making the Argument with Nick Freitas

Who Wins in 2028?

Making the Argument with Nick Freitas

Nick Freitas

News, Society & Culture, News Commentary, Politics

4.9991 Ratings

🗓️ 16 April 2026

⏱️ 77 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The 2028 Presidential race has already started, and most people don't realize it. So, who is running, who are the most likely nominees, and who is favored to win?

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00:00:00 – Predicting the 2028 presidential election outcome early.

00:02:47 – Evaluating political prediction markets and "voting vibes".

00:08:53 – Comparing JD Vance and Marco Rubio's political strengths.

00:18:38 – Analyzing Ron DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin's viability.

00:22:41 – Is Tucker Carlson a viable wild card candidate?.

00:37:24 – Analyzing the Democratic primary bench and Kamala Harris.

00:44:49 – Why Gavin Newsom struggles with the identity card.

00:52:42 – Abigail Spanberger’s internal struggle with Virginia's leadership.

01:12:03 – Arizona's Democrat dark horse.

01:14:59 – Final 2028 predictions and preordering The Man Book.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Well, ladies and gentlemen, the midterms are coming up, which makes this is a great time to start

0:05.5

predicting the presidential election in 2028. That's right, as we are prone to do on this channel,

0:12.2

we like to look way out into the future and make predictions based off of what we're seeing

0:16.5

right now. Why? Because it's insane and nobody should do it. But it does end up being kind of fun.

0:22.2

Plus, you can always look back later and decide who was right. And with us today, we have none

0:27.7

other than the Oracle of Virginia, arguably, arguably the best predictor of political outcomes

0:35.5

in the business today. Christian Hines, you accurately predicted

0:40.5

within one point how each swing state would go for Donald Trump in the last election.

0:48.0

I wouldn't say every swing state that you did it. We did everyone you you got a right within everyone i called the

0:56.0

outcome no you called every state within one point did i give did i really give a margin for every state

1:03.0

yeah i can't even remember that's so funny i can't even remember michigan i was like really i remember i was

1:08.5

like super iffy i'm going you said I'm gonna call it

1:11.5

Michigan's going and I think you got them all within one point I know that I got

1:15.0

Pennsylvania like seven o'clock at night too like no no we were talking the he's referring

1:21.3

he called it before the election he called it before the election and then on election night

1:26.9

when the numbers were coming in he was like oh yeah it's good. Like, he called it way before any of the newscasters. No, no, no. That was Pennsylvania because I was doing that work with Cliff for the PHAs. And I remember that podcast. It was the Thursday before election day. And we went through all seven states. And we basically concluded Trump's going to win all of them. And the only one that I was, I was iffy about was Michigan. Oh, I didn't come to that conclusion. You did. I do believe that we came out on the end and said, yeah, he's also going to win Michigan. But I explicitly remember in Pennsylvania, I said that he was going to win by about a

2:01.2

point and a half. Yeah. And he won by, I think, a little bit more than that. He won by about two. Yeah. Well, that's what I said. You caught them all within within a point of what actually happened. And, and again, a lot of this, again, this is not just, he's not just guessing. He's not, he's not consulting the spirits

2:16.8

he's not using the

2:18.6

Candice Owens version of analysis

2:20.9

where somebody's not just guessing. He's not consulting the spirits. He's not using the Candice Owens' version of

2:20.5

analysis where somebody visits him in a dream and he has vibes. Like you actually use data,

2:25.3

but you don't just use everybody else data. You came up with your own model for predicting

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