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Money For the Rest of Us

When Volatility Spikes, Financial Things Break - The Case of UK Gilts and Pensions

Money For the Rest of Us

J. David Stein

Investing, Investing Podcast, Business, Economics, Economy

4.5 • 1.4K Ratings

🗓️ 12 October 2022

⏱️ 32 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

What is volatility and what causes it to rise and fall? How volatility itself contributes to more volatility such as in the example of the chaotic UK government bond market where long-term yields have increased by 4% in 2022.

Topics covered include:

  • How the role of volatility has changed in financial markets
  • What caused UK interest rates to spike and long-term bond investors to lose 50%
  • What is liability-driven investment
  • What drives increases in volatility and volatility spikes and spillovers are more frequent
  • How to earn income from shorting volatility and what are the risks
  • What we can learn when financial securities blow up


For more information on this episode click here.

Episode Sponsors

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Show Notes

The volatility virus strikes again by Eric Lonergan—Financial Times

How ‘Liability-Driven’ Pension Funds Triggered UK Bond Panic by Loukia Gyftopoulou and Greg Ritchie—Bloomberg

UK government debt and deficit: December 202—UK Office for National Statistics

Markets are more fragile than investors think by Robin Wigglesworth—Financial Times

Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk: Reflexivity in the Shadows of Black Monday 1987—Artemis Capital Management

What Caused the Volatility “Volmageddon” on 5-Feb-2018 by Vance Harwood—Six Figure Investing

Gamma Explained—Merrill

Delta Explained—Merrill

Inside Volatility Trading: Is VIX Backwardation Necessarily a Sign of a Future Down Market? by Scott Bauer


Investments Mentioned

WisdomTree CBOE S&P500 PutWrite Strategy ETF (PUTW)

Simplify Volatility Premium ETF (SVOL)


Related Episodes

159: What You Need To Know About Volatility

283: Why You Should Care About Carry Trades


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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us.

0:02.1

This is a personal financial on money, how it works, how to invest and how to live without

0:07.7

worrying about it.

0:08.8

Remember who's David Stein today's episode 405?

0:12.1

It's titled When volatility rises, Financial Things Break.

0:17.3

Volatility measures how much a security or asset class deviates from its average.

0:24.8

That could be the average price or it could be the average return over time.

0:30.7

A stock or an ETF is more volatile if it experiences greater swings in price.

0:36.7

A stock or an ETF or an asset class is more volatile if it's daily, monthly or annual return.

0:45.7

Deviates significantly from its average, it could be a very high return, it could be negative

0:51.6

returns but it's a measure of volatility and in finance the statistical measure used

0:58.2

most frequently to measure volatility is standard deviation.

1:03.0

Standard deviation is the foundation of modern portfolio theory if you've ever had a financial

1:09.1

plan or an asset allocation plan prepared for you by a financial advisor or even using

1:16.1

some type of online planning tool, often times they'll show what's known as an efficient

1:21.1

frontier and they'll show different portfolio mixes that maximize the expected level return

1:29.5

for a given level of volatility and that volatility used is the standard deviation.

1:36.4

In a recent editorial in the Financial Times, Eric Lonergan who is a portfolio manager

1:43.0

and author wrote the biggest structural change in investor behavior in the last 30 years

1:49.9

is the near universal adoption of volatility as a measure of risk.

1:56.2

When I read that editorial I was somewhat, well I was curious about what he meant and started

2:03.7

researching more because I know as I've done asset allocation studies over the years,

...

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