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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

When the Promise of a Quarter-Point Rate Hike Is Good News

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 3 March 2022

⏱️ 34 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The war in Eastern Europe has led to a meaningful shift in the market’s perception of what the Federal Open Market Committee will do when it meets in two weeks. Fed fund futures are still pricing in a greater than 80% chance of a rate hike. But the odds of a 50-basis-point boost to the central bank’s benchmark interest rate are now near zero after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, said he was inclined to propose and support a 25-basis-point move. Meanwhile, the civilian death toll in Ukraine surpassed 2,000, and Russian forces continue to threaten major cities, including Kyiv. Financial markets remain volatile, with U.S. equity indexes surging more than 2%, even as crude oil prices continue to climb. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss recent price action in the context of his short- and medium-term strategy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/36WMVUq Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:26.8

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0:35.6

Welcome to Real Vision Daily Briefing.

0:37.0

It's Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022.

0:40.2

I'm Ash Bennington, joined today by 42 macros, Darius Dale.

0:44.6

But first, here's what's happening right now.

0:47.6

Seven days in the invasion of Ukraine continues to broaden Russian troops closer to the capital of Kiev.

0:54.4

Overnight, Russian troops also surrounded Mariopoul, the city in eastern Ukraine.

0:59.6

We're here to talk about markets and macro today, obviously.

1:02.6

But this is a major humanitarian crisis.

1:05.2

There are conflicting reports about civilian death tolls.

1:07.6

Ukrainian officials now reporting 2,000 civilian deaths.

1:11.0

The United Nations High Commission for Human Rights confirming over 130 deaths from civilians.

1:17.8

There are now also more than 800,000 civilian refugees also recording to the United Nations.

1:24.8

As I said, we're here to talk about markets.

1:26.8

Obviously, it's a difficult day to do that.

1:29.0

But let's go through what's happening in U.S. equity markets today.

...

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