"We Cannot Say How the Conflict Will End in the Short Term"

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 2 March 2022

⏱️ 33 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

A Russian military convoy continues to bear down on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital and its most populous city. Its progress has been slow, much like the broader invasion. But news from Eastern Europe continues to roil markets, with the three major U.S. equity indexes all down at least 1.5% two hours ahead of the close of regular trading. Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields are sliding, and the CBOE Volatility Index is spiking. Commodity prices are surging, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil up nearly 9% on the day, Brent crude up nearly 8%, and corn and wheat both up more than 5%. Meanwhile, with the global community’s sanction regime still taking shape, the Russian ruble is now worth less than one cent versus the U.S. dollar, and Russia’s stock market remained closed for another full day. “At this point,” notes Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, “we cannot say how the conflict will end in the short term.” Papic joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake on today’s Daily Briefing to discuss the geopolitical situation. And Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, is here to talk about how financial markets are reacting to events on the ground. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/35jzRrH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:35.2	Hello, welcome to the Real Vision Daily briefing. It is Tuesday, March 1st, 2022,
0:40.0	a Maggie Lake here with Tony Greer, Editor of the Morning Navigator Newsletter,
0:43.6	and Marco Pappic Chief Strategist at the Clock Tower Group. Welcome to both of you.
0:49.3	As we were just talking about another really volatile day in the market,
0:53.2	Ukraine continuing to dominate the action, we have crude prices jumping,
0:57.5	as much as 11% cop or aluminum soaring, the Swiss frank hitting a seven-year high.
1:03.5	And you get the sense that this is really still unfolding these moves.
1:07.0	Marco, let's start with you. It's hard to wrap your head around the ramifications of some of
1:14.0	these events happening really simultaneously. What's top of mind for you as this crisis unfolds?
1:21.3	Well, I think the top of mind for me and for every investor should be the fact that this is
1:25.1	occurring in a very complicated macro environment. You know, I mean, we've had wars since the
1:31.2	Second World War, many of them, and I'll tell you this, 99 out of 100 didn't bother the markets
1:38.4	at all. The one that did and that I keep sort of referencing is the Yom Kippur War.
1:44.6	It occurred in a macro context that was already inflationary. The Fed had been raising rates for
1:49.5	over 12 months at that point. You had the dollar collapse after the Smithsonian agreement at the
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