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Predictable with Stu Burguiere

What the Markets Know About the Election That You Don’t

Predictable with Stu Burguiere

Predictable Media

News, News Commentary, Politics

4.95.6K Ratings

🗓️ 5 May 2026

⏱️ 38 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Stu Burguiere breaks down what the prediction markets are quietly signaling about today’s elections and why the real story might not match the headlines. While pundits focus on primaries and redistricting, the markets are pricing in a very different reality, and Stu explains what those hidden signals could mean for who actually gains power. Also, what do the markets say about a prolonged oil crisis? Stu takes a look at the surprising gap between media panic and market expectations. Plus, the unsolicited bid from GameStop to acquire eBay. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Predictable with Stu.

0:05.7

Go to Predictable Show.com.

0:09.3

If you want to get all connected with the substack, we have a lot of written pieces that are kind of prepped and ready to go as we're getting ready to launch all the stuff.

0:17.8

We're entering into primary season.

0:20.0

It's going to be a big season for us here

0:21.4

at Predictable and, of course, going into election season as well. If you are on this channel,

0:26.7

maybe on YouTube, and you are here, subscribe for Stu Does America. Let me just quickly tell you

0:31.7

that Stu and Dave do America now exists. It's a thing. It's a thing we've been doing for a couple

0:36.6

of weeks now, and we

0:37.6

would love for you to join us over at that channel. It's Stu and Dave do America, search

0:44.0

YouTube, search podcast, do the things. It's with comedian Dave Landau, who's really, really funny.

0:48.3

I think you like the show quite a bit, and it's over on Blaze TV as well. Now, we have a primary night tonight. Yeah,

0:58.1

I will say, it's kind of boring. I will say it's mostly boring. It's probably a bad way

1:05.2

to sell this segment to you, but there are, of course, important elections going on,

1:09.0

important things going on, and a lot of that

1:11.2

ties into the prediction market scene. So I want to give you a little bit of background on these elections,

1:16.1

give you some of the prediction market info as well, where do things stand? What are we looking for going

1:19.9

forward? We have that coming up. We have a bunch of stuff as it relates to oil prices and Iran

1:24.8

and prediction markets as well as, you know, kind of a market I kind of like

1:29.3

will end the show with today. We're going to start, though, with seven midterm elections on

1:33.8

Tuesday. We'll test Trump's power in Indiana. This is the way the media is kind of talking about

1:39.4

this particular election. Understandably so, because really, again, there's not a ton of drama in these

...

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