What's Driving Fed Policy? w/ Jim Bianco

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business, Business News, News, Investing

4.2 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 15 June 2023

⏱️ 36 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Maggie Lake to break down the market's response to the Fed pausing rate hikes, decipher bearish sentiment in the bond market, and discuss the role of yesterday's CPI print. In the second half of today's show, Jim Bianco will explain to us the key drivers behind the current Fed policy — and what it means for investors. You can find more of Jim's work here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/visitor-home/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:56.4	What's driving Fed policy? Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Real Vision Delhi briefing with me today
1:07.6	is Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research. Hi, Jim. It's great to see you. Thanks for having me back.
1:13.5	Love having you on a Fed day. And boy, there's a sort of lot to unpack in this one. So we had the
1:20.2	decision Fed held rate steady for the first time. I think it is 15 months, but they certainly
1:26.2	tried to sound as hawkish as possible. At first, we saw a stock sell off the two-year yield
1:32.0	shot higher, but then things sort of turned around after that as we made our way through the press
1:37.3	conference. So just broadly, what's your reaction to what you heard and what you saw in the market?
1:42.7	You know, the meeting itself, not moving the reaction is that's pretty much what was expected.
1:49.7	There was an outlier chance they might do something like raise rates, but that was a very low
1:54.4	probability, but higher than normal. I'd say that what they announced was super hawkish
2:03.0	skip, because what they did with the dot chart for 2023 is they raised it. And so they're saying
2:10.9	that there's going to be two more rate hikes this calendar year, and there's only four meetings
2:16.1	left. So that's 50 basis points spread over four meetings. All but two of the members of the
2:23.0	Fed said that they would raise rates at least one more time, and the two that didn't said that
2:27.8	they're just going to hold steady. In fact, one member thinks they're going to raise weights
2:31.9	four more times, which would be 25 at every meeting here and out. And the probabilities for the
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