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Season C to play.

Is Powell ready to pause? Welcome to the Revision daily briefing. It's Tuesday, June 13th, 2023. I'm Ash Bennington. I'm joined today by Mish Schneider Chief Strategist at Market Gage.

Welcome, Mish.

I see you, Ash.

It's great to see you as well. I'm excited for this show. Obviously, we're having this on a great day here to talk about macro economics and everything that's happening in markets. We got CPI data.

We have Fed day coming up tomorrow. First, I should say we're having a little bit of a technical streaming issue on our website right now.

So if you're watching on YouTube, that's the place to get this content live. I'm sure we're going to have the website issue fixed shortly and we'll have it there with a slight delay.

Mish, I should say coming out of the gate. We talked a little bit about CPI. Let me just read through these numbers and get your impression here. CPI month over month came out 0.1% on a month over month basis. Apparently cooling consensus was 0.2% consensus range 0 to 0.3 and prior 0.4.

So obviously below consensus below consensus from and below prior. So a bit of cooling. But when we look at it year over year. This is where the complexity comes through. This is headline year over year prior 4.9% actual 4% it's still twice what the Fed's target is.

How do you think about all this complexity, Mish?

Definitely in the camp of the fact that today CPI numbers were so expected even though they came in technically under expectation because we've seen a huge drop in some of the commodity prices over the last few months.

I always wonder what's going to happen next, not so much what already happened. And the fact that they were a little bit cooler today of course has now really charged up the bull base after the last couple of days where we've seen great rallies.

I'm actually still thinking now that this is sort of the correction and inflation. This was kind of like the tro in terms of it coming down from its highs and could easily start turning up. And in fact, I think I sent you a chart where it shows that we're still over 5% in terms of the CPI.

And it depends on where you look. Obviously numbers are cooked all the time. We've come off from the highs at over 8%. But we are really still above where we broke out in terms of inflation in 2021.

And that means it's still, although I hate to use the word since it's overused sticky. And a couple of other things from the report I found interesting one would be that food which actually had been level over the last couple of months rose slightly but still rose and so did a parallel and so did shelter.

So we definitely depends on where you look. Obviously, certain sectors are showing some signs of relief while others could emerge. And of course, then there's all the X factors we can talk about that what could spur more inflation in the second half.

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