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🗓️ 16 April 2021
⏱️ 7 minutes
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0:00.0 | Welcome to our exchanges at Goldman Sachs Markets Update for Friday, April 16th. |
0:08.1 | Each week we check them with a leader across the firm to get a quick take on what they're |
0:11.7 | watching in the markets. This week we're going |
0:14.6 | to discuss the latest trends affecting the US dollar and other currencies. I'm Jake |
0:18.8 | Stewart, Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm, and I'm delighted to be |
0:22.4 | joined today by |
0:23.2 | Zach Pandel who is co-head of Global Foreign Exchange Strategy for Goldman Sachs |
0:28.9 | research. Zach, welcome to the program. |
0:30.8 | Hi Jake. So Zach you've had a pretty negative view on the program. Hi Jake. So, Zach, you've had a pretty negative view |
0:34.2 | on the dollar basically because of its high valuation, |
0:37.4 | low interest rates in the US |
0:38.8 | and a recovering global economy. |
0:40.8 | But you recently published a note removing your dollar short trade can you explain why? |
0:45.0 | Yes we've had a negative structural view on the dollar but the dollar appreciated in the first quarter as the market really repriced its expectations for where the Federal Reserve is |
0:55.2 | headed over time. What we try to do with these trade recommendations is give investors the best |
1:00.4 | expression to try to extract value from the bearish dollar |
1:04.0 | thesis over time. We tried to short the dollar versus the |
1:07.1 | commodity currencies and G10 in the first quarter |
1:09.7 | like the Canadian dollar. Those were basically flat versus the greenback and so we decided to take a |
1:14.8 | step back. Now US rates have begun to stabilize recently despite very strong data. Five-year |
1:21.7 | Treasury yields are actually a bit lower now than |
1:24.3 | where they were one month ago despite booming growth and upside surprises to |
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