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What Next: TBD | Tech, power, and the future - Betting on Venezuela

Slate News

Slate Podcasts

News Commentary, Politics, News

4.56K Ratings

🗓️ 9 January 2026

⏱️ 24 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

While the U.S. was busy capturing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, someone online was  busy placing bets on prediction markets on the ouster. And these well-timed bets may have netted a still-anonymous someone more than $400,000. Was this a case of kind-of-legal insider trading? Or is America going all-out on its efforts to make everything a casino?

We’re going to be talking to pediatrician Dr. Lauren Hughes about the major changes to the CDC vaccine schedule. We want your questions! Hit us up via email at whatnextTBD@slate.com or leave us a voicemail at 646-582-0091. 

Guest: Alex Kirshner, Slate contributing writer

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Podcast production by Evan Campbell, and Patrick Fort.


Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Just before 11 p.m. Eastern Time on January 2nd, President Trump orders the military to go into

0:11.9

Caracas and get Nicholas Maduro. That's late contributor Alex Kirchner, and you know that part of

0:19.6

the story already. And around 1 a.m. Eastern you know that part of the story already.

0:27.6

And around 1 a.m. Eastern time the next morning, the third, there are explosions heard in Venezuela.

0:33.7

And a little while after that, basically while a lot of people are sleeping in the United States,

0:37.4

Trump announces that the U.S. has Maduro in custody.

0:40.9

But before that, something was happening online.

0:49.5

Between December 27th and in particular with a concentration earlier in the evening and earlier in the day on January 2nd, there's this traitor.

0:54.5

The T-R-A-D-R kind.

0:58.4

Whose name we don't know, whose identity is completely mysterious to us, who logs into Polymarket,

1:05.9

the prediction market platform, and just piles up bets, which can almost be traded like stocks on polymarket,

1:14.6

that by January 31st, Nicholas Maduro will be out of power.

1:20.7

January 31st, 2026.

1:23.1

2026, correct.

1:24.7

There are a few different bets here with slightly different wording. Remember that part.

1:30.1

We're going to come back to it later. And these bets, which were only $30-some thousand to put down,

1:37.7

would net this trader something on the order of $400,000 in profit, when Maduro was brought to the United States

1:46.3

and Polymarket resolved the market's outcome to,

1:49.3

yes, he is out of power by January 31st.

1:52.9

So good work if you can get it to turn

1:55.2

$30,000, $40,000 in polymarket trades

1:58.4

into nearly half a million dollars

...

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