What Kind of Leader Will Al-Qaeda Choose Next?

Modern War Institute

John Amble

Government, News

4.7 • 798 Ratings

🗓️ 2 November 2022

⏱️ 45 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The recent death of Ayman al-Zawahiri marks a rare inflection point for a terrorist organization that has had just two leaders in the more than three decades of its existence. Forecasting its future trajectory—and developing counterterrorism policy—will depend on what type of leader emerges as Zawahiri's successor. Dr. Tricia Bacon and Dr. Elizabeth Grimm are the authors of a new book, Terror in Transition: Leadership and Succession in Terrorist Organizations. They join this episode to describe the five categories of leader they have identified by rigorously analyzing leadership succession in terrorist organizations. They also explain what each of those types of leader would mean for al-Qaeda going forward and why it is so crucial for counterterrorism policymakers and practitioners to understand these leadership types as they conceptualize the threat posed by the terrorist organization and seek ways to counter that threat.

Transcript

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0:00.0	We argue from the starting point that what founders do is that they create the how and the why for the organization.
0:09.8	And then each successor pivots themselves and positions themselves relative to that founder's frames.
0:18.3	I think a visionary is best positioned to revitalize al-Qaeda, but that doesn't necessarily indicate a visionary will appear.
0:26.6	Because I think failure to understand that type of leader is a failure to really then tailor the counterterrorism, the appropriate counterterrorism approach against that group.
0:37.7	Hey, welcome back to the Modern War Institute podcast. I'm John Amble, editorial director at
0:42.2	MWI, and my guests on this episode are Dr. Elizabeth Grimm and Dr. Trisha Bacon.
0:47.3	Dr. Grimm is an associate professor of teaching in Georgetown University's security studies program,
0:52.0	and Dr. Bacon is an associate professor in the School
0:54.7	of Public Affairs at American University. Together, they also authored the recently released book
0:59.8	Terror in Transition, Leadership and Succession in Terrorist Organizations.
1:04.5	This past summer, the death of Iman al-Zawahiri in Kabul, Afghanistan, marked a significant
1:09.2	and rare inflection point for Al-Qaeda.
1:11.6	He was only the group's second leader in the more than three decades since its founding.
1:15.6	That makes it a unique opportunity to take stock of al-Qaeda's evolution
1:19.6	and also explore the types of leaders at the helm of terrorist organizations.
1:23.6	When Zawahiri succeeded Osama bin Laden, what kind of leadership model did he adopt and what did that signal about the organization's trajectory?
1:31.3	And especially important now, what type of leader will replace Zawahiri and how should that inform U.S. counterterrorism policy?
1:38.3	It's a really interesting discussion, but before we get to it, a couple of quick notes.
1:42.3	First, if you aren't following MWI and social media, you can find us on Twitter, Facebook, or LinkedIn. And second,
1:48.0	as always, what you hear in this episode are the views of the participants and don't represent
1:51.6	those of West Point, the Army, or any other agency of the U.S. government. All right, here's my
1:56.0	conversation with Elizabeth Grimm and Trisha Bacon.
	...

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