Wednesday - May 6, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 6 May 2026
⏱️ 7 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Brian Szytel reports a strong market follow-through day, with the Dow up 612 points, the S&P 500 up 1.5%, and the Nasdaq up 2%, driven largely by a ~7% drop in WTI oil on positive Iran deal developments, which also pushed the 10-year yield down 7 bps to about 4.35%. Earnings season is going better than expected with positive CapEx/AI themes, dividend increases, and upbeat guidance; private credit results have also beaten expectations despite negative media narratives. He notes the market’s year-to-date gains (Dow ~4.25%, S&P ~8%, Nasdaq ~11%+) and observes that only about half of S&P names are above the 200-day moving average, though semiconductors look frothy and expensive. He highlights ADP private payrolls of 109,000 vs. 99,000 expected and wage growth of 4.4% for job stayers and 6.6% for job changers. He explains that prices still move when U.S. exchanges are closed due to global listings and near 24-hour futures trading.
00:00 Market Rally Recap
00:49 Earnings Season Strength
01:42 Valuations And Internals
02:16 Semis Froth Check
03:01 Oil And Macro Risks
03:20 ADP Jobs And Wages
03:57 Why Markets Move After Hours
05:10 Wrap Up And Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.2 | Good evening and welcome back into Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel back with you. Here's your host this evening from our Newport Beach, California office here at the Bonson Group. |
| 0:24.3 | On a follow-through day in markets, we had an update yesterday, and we've got a pretty robust follow-through here today. |
| 0:30.4 | The Dow was up 612 points. S&P was up a percent and a half, and NASDAQ was up a stunning 2% on the day. So big up move, |
| 0:40.1 | mostly predicated on a decrease in oil prices. So WTI was down about 7%. And you can guess the |
| 0:46.7 | reason as to why there's positive development in a deal happening in Iran. And that's moved oil |
| 0:52.5 | lower. It moved bond yields lower. 10-year yield was down |
| 0:56.2 | seven basis points. We got down to 435 on tens. So markets are feeling better. We're in the middle of |
| 1:03.2 | earnings season, and we wrote about this yesterday, but with two-thirds having reported at this point, |
| 1:08.6 | obviously it's going better than expected, and everything from |
| 1:11.7 | capex and AI to most other sectors, things are going quite well. Even the private credit names, |
| 1:17.2 | individual stocks that have reported have really beaten largely expectations around a sector that |
| 1:23.0 | the media, I think, is broken, and the lenders and the borrowers know isn't. So that's what's going |
| 1:29.0 | on a private credit, which is that there isn't anything unusual really going on under the hood there. |
| 1:34.1 | But when I looked under the hood of the stock market, we've seen this meltup now in markets. |
| 1:39.7 | The Dow is up maybe four or so, four and a quarter percent on the year. |
| 1:44.7 | S&P is up almost eight. |
| 1:46.8 | Nasdaq's up about 11 and a half, about 11 and a quarter on the year. |
| 1:51.1 | Or this is May 6th, so we're not even halfway through the year. |
| 1:54.4 | Stocks are up. |
| 1:55.5 | If you peel back the onion a little bit and just look at our things overvalued, you can |
| 2:00.1 | look at PE ratios, but there's some |
... |
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