Tuesday - May 5, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 5 May 2026
⏱️ 7 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Brian Szytel reports stocks higher (Dow +356, S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +1%) with bonds quiet and the 10-year at 4.42%, drifting up on Middle East turmoil and higher inflation expectations tied to energy prices. Oil continues to whipsaw amid geopolitical risk between the U.S. and Iran, including limited U.S. military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and some fire exchanged. He says equities are holding up because S&P 500 earnings are strong: about 60% have reported with revenue growth near 10%, earnings growth around 27%, and record margins above 20% helped by a more tech-heavy index. Economic data was mostly positive: JOLTS job openings at 6.8M, new home sales at 682K, and ISM Services at 53.6. He also explains Fed currency swap lines as a longstanding liquidity tool supporting the dollar’s reserve status.
00:00 Market Wrap Overview
00:30 Rates and Oil Whipsaw
01:19 Why Stocks Hold Up
02:18 Economic Data Check
03:22 Fed Swap Lines Explained
05:02 Closing Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Sightel, your host for this evening from our Newport Beach, California, |
| 0:19.0 | headquarters here at the Bonson Group on a bright |
| 0:21.5 | sunny day, albeit I'm a little wary for the worst after a very long travel day last night |
| 0:26.7 | that was far later than I had hoped. But that's besides the point here. We've got an up day in stocks |
| 0:32.2 | and I'm going to take that. We've got Dow that closed up 356 points. We've got S&P that was up eight tenths. |
| 0:39.9 | And we've got the NASDAQ that was up a full percentage point. |
| 0:43.2 | Bond land was fairly quiet tenure was at 442 at the close. |
| 0:48.1 | We've drifted a little higher from the 420s up to now the 440s. |
| 0:52.2 | And it's all related to turmoil and Middle East to higher inflation |
| 0:55.3 | expectations because of rising energy prices. So yesterday with tensions in the Middle East again |
| 1:01.5 | as the culprit you had WTI up 4% and today you've got it down 4%. So it just continues to be |
| 1:08.2 | this whipsaw, this seesaw in energy markets as they try to guess and price in the risk and the geopolitical front between the U.S. and Iran. |
| 1:16.8 | They have started to escort some ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military has, but it's few and far between at this point, and there was some fire exchanged back and forth. |
| 1:26.9 | Not anything insurmountable from a conflict standpoint. |
| 1:29.9 | Nonetheless, that's what's ongoing. |
| 1:31.9 | But the comments that we have in there today are why is this market continuing to perform so well if you've got that sort of risk? |
| 1:37.9 | And our answer to that is earnings. |
| 1:39.9 | And I've talked about this a few different times. |
| 1:42.0 | But you now have about 60% of the S&P 500 that |
| 1:45.5 | has reported. It's got revenue growth up 10%, and it's got earnings growth now up 27%. Those are big |
| 1:51.9 | numbers, all positive. And you also have these record margins I keep talking about over 20% now. |
... |
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