Wednesday - March 25, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 25 March 2026
⏱️ 7 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
On Wednesday, March 25, Brian Szytel reports markets finished higher for the first time in a week, with the Dow up 305 points, the S&P 500 up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq up just over 0.7%, while yields and oil fell (10-year down about five basis points to 4.33; Brent down a few percent). He attributes the move to renewed U.S. rhetoric about a 15-point proposal to Iran aimed at de-escalation, followed by Iranian media calling it illogical, framing this as typical negotiation as a U.S. offer window nears expiration. He notes equities are only about 5–6% off highs and credit spreads have not moved much. He shifts to concerns about AI-driven market concentration, heavy AI venture capital exposure, and unresolved ROI. He explains how information gets “priced in” via many participants and probabilities, and cites hotter-than-expected February import (1.3%) and export (1.5%) prices.
00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:16 Market Snapshot
01:03 Iran Deal Headlines
02:14 Volatility and Credit Spreads
02:33 AI Concentration Risk
03:06 What Priced In Means
04:20 Import Export Price Data
05:03 Wrap Up and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.1 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, March 25th, Brian Saitel back with you from our West Palm Beach, Florida office here on another beautiful sunny day before we have a client dinner later this evening. |
| 0:26.6 | And so I'm happy to be with you here. The market was actually higher. And for the first time all week and maybe even some of the last week, really, we had a market that held on to gains. So we started up higher than we closed, |
| 0:38.6 | although we basically traded around the same exact level through the entire day. And we just |
| 0:43.0 | haven't seen that predictability, at least intraday trading. So we ended up with the Dow that was |
| 0:47.0 | up 305 points. S&P was up half a percent, NASDAQ up a little over seven-tenths of a percent. |
| 0:53.8 | So positive across the board and a little more skewed towards the NASDAX. Yields dropped and oil dropped. So you had the 10-year down about five bases points at 433 and Brent was down a few percentage points. So it was WTI. Obviously that market trades ongoing here. So you've got foreign markets now open and it's |
| 1:12.9 | already changing. But that's my around the horn at least what went on in the market. And the reason is that |
| 1:17.3 | there was more rhetoric from the U.S. on a 15-point plan the U.S. had provided to Iran on a structure |
| 1:23.9 | for a deal to de-escalate the situation. |
| 1:28.4 | And this included all the usual suspects of no more missiles, no more nuclear project, opening |
| 1:33.8 | of the Strait of Hormuz, things like that. |
| 1:36.0 | A few hours later, the Iran media announced that they thought it was not logical and they |
| 1:42.7 | demanded all these other sorts of things. But like I said, |
| 1:45.6 | the last couple of days inside of Dividend Cafe, this is part of a negotiation process and we still |
| 1:50.3 | have now a couple of days left here before this offer by the U.S. to not attack is going to expire. |
| 1:56.4 | And I just don't think that Iran is going to give up their leverage point in the meantime. So that |
| 2:00.6 | this is |
| 2:01.0 | a common back and forth between these two things. And I say that not knowing if there is, in fact, |
| 2:08.2 | these conversations going on. I have to have faith in what's being reported in our media to some |
| 2:12.8 | degree, but also understand as best as I can the leverage points and what's at stake and try to report |
| 2:19.2 | those things to you and not necessarily prognosticate on how those will turn out since that is |
... |
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