Wednesday - June 18, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 18 June 2025
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
In this Dividend Cafe episode, Brian Szytel reviews the day’s market performance, noting minimal movement across indices and bonds despite it being a Fed day. Key topics include unchanged interest rates, a downgrade in U.S. GDP growth by the Fed, and a focus on housing market weaknesses and their economic implications. Brian discusses the significant Treasury maturities upcoming and the potential for expedited rate cuts. Legislative updates include the passage of a major bill making the 2017 TCJA tax cuts permanent and addressing other taxation issues. The episode concludes with jobless claims data and an outlook on future employment rates, alongside reminders about market closures for the Juneteenth holiday.
00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Market Overview and Fed Report 01:33 Housing Market Insights 02:22 Treasury and Interest Rates 03:05 Legislative Updates 04:37 Investment Strategies and Economic Calendar 05:55 Closing Remarks and Disclaimers
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:13.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, June the 18th. Brian Saitel with you here from TPG, Newport Beach, California. |
| 0:22.7 | And what was really a pretty directionless day in markets, fairly undecisive, we actually closed towards the lows of the day, |
| 0:28.5 | but the Dow was down, 44 points, S&P was flat, NASDAQ was up about a tenth of a percent. |
| 0:34.5 | Also, flattened bond land as well, 10-year didn't move much. So a really benign day, |
| 0:39.5 | considering today was Fed Day, and oftentimes we get more volatility out of these days, but |
| 0:44.6 | there was so much of the statement already telegraphed ahead of time that markets just weren't |
| 0:50.2 | surprised, and it was everything that was expected as far as their report goes. They left |
| 0:54.6 | rates unchanged for the fourth meeting in a row unchanged at four and a quarter to four and a half. |
| 0:59.7 | They did downgrade GDP growth for the U.S. from 1.7% to 1.4. And if you remember last week, |
| 1:07.9 | I wrote about the World Bank doing the same thing and I would take the over on it. |
| 1:12.4 | I'll still say that with the Fed as well. However, Fed futures actually moved up for a September |
| 1:16.6 | rate cut. They left their dot plots unchanged. This is in that SEP report they released on projections, |
| 1:22.6 | but the dot plots were left on change. So there's two more rate cuts priced in before the end of |
| 1:26.4 | the year. That's why |
| 1:27.5 | Fed Futures kind of moved back up to 71% for a September rate cut. So there you have. My comments |
| 1:34.1 | in the what's on Brian's mind section were about the numbers that we're getting out of housing |
| 1:39.0 | right now are pretty bad. Let me qualify that. Bad meaning the Delta is turning lower. So you've got existing home sales |
| 1:45.4 | that were pretty abysmal, that big buyer-seller demand imbalance I talked about. Today, you had |
| 1:51.0 | new home starts that were down 9%, 9.3 month over month. That's the lowest level since right in |
| 1:57.7 | the middle of COVID, which was May of 2020. So if you think about people wanting |
| 2:01.2 | to move right during that period of time, it basically turned off. Then you have sentiment, both on the |
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