Tuesday - June 17, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 17 June 2025
⏱️ 6 minutes
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Summary
Market Commentary: Volatility and Sector Valuations – June 17 Update In this week's edition of Dividend Cafe, Brian Syztel provides a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape as of June 17, discussing recent geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices and stock market performance. Key points include a detailed analysis of the impact on various indexes such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. Brian emphasizes the significance of sector valuations, highlighting defensive sectors and their historical performance compared to growth stocks. Additional economic indicators, including retail sales, industrial production, and the NAHB Housing Market Index, are also reviewed. The episode concludes with a look ahead to upcoming jobless claims and the FOMC decision.
00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:21 Market Update: Middle East Tensions and Market Reactions 01:03 Valuations and Defensive Sectors 02:08 Growth vs. Value Stocks 03:28 Economic Calendar and Housing Market 04:22 Upcoming Events and Conclusion 04:39 Disclaimer and Legal Information
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:14.0 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, June the 17th, Brian Saitel with you here again from our Newport Beach, California office. |
| 0:21.6 | We had an update yesterday on some easing tensions in the Middle East. |
| 0:24.6 | The exact opposite happened today as those tensions heated back up between Israel and Iran |
| 0:29.6 | and also comments out of the Trump administration on the subject as well. |
| 0:34.6 | It had oil up today 4%. |
| 0:36.6 | You had stocks down. The Dow dropped just under 300 |
| 0:40.4 | points. S&P was down 8 tenths of a percent. Nasdaq was down nine tenths of a percent. Then you had a |
| 0:46.1 | big rally in the bond market, as the safe haven asset as treasuries are, where capital flows in. |
| 0:51.3 | During tough times, you had the 10- tenure drop about seven basis points. We closed |
| 0:55.1 | at 4.39. Bitcoin was down 4 or 5% today. Big sell-off and all risk assets across the board. The |
| 1:01.9 | defensive held up much better. My main point today is about where valuations are. So we're trading here |
| 1:07.1 | at 22 times earnings. And even if you thought the earnings picture was going to be rosy |
| 1:11.1 | and expand from here to kind of validate and make that multiple worthy of where it is, |
| 1:16.8 | it's just pretty hard to see any multiple expansion from here. If you look at the actual |
| 1:21.2 | defensive sectors in the S&P 500, call that energy, health care, utilities, and staples, |
| 1:26.9 | and you combine all the weightings in the |
| 1:28.9 | index, you're under 21% of all of those sectors combined. The last time it was this low was the |
| 1:34.6 | year 2000 when the dot-com bubble had occurred and technology was overvalued then. And of course, |
| 1:40.4 | what you got for the next 10 years was a sideways action in the overall indices. |
| 1:45.9 | And you had value stocks and dividend growth stocks typically during that period of time, just largely outperform. |
| 1:51.6 | I believe that's a contrarian indicator and an important signpost here as readers and listeners look at their equity allocations. |
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