Wednesday - July 8, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 8 July 2026
⏱️ 6 minutes
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Summary
Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 8, discussing increased volatility tied to escalating US-Iran tensions after Iran struck oil tankers and the US retaliated against multiple military targets, with oil up about 5% and markets modestly lower but without a clear flight to safety (dollar slightly up, yields up ~3 bps, gold and silver down). He notes rotation dynamics and highlights sector breadth: pharma, household products, and utilities show 100% of stocks above their 50-day moving averages, versus tech, semis, and autos below 40%. Economically, wholesale inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.3% expected, while wholesale sales jumped 3.4%, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio to its lowest since 2012. He addresses Scott Bessent’s tariff “success” claim, citing tariff revenues annualizing to about $290B versus $500B–$1T estimates, some net-positive trade deals (Japan, South Korea), little change in the trade deficit, slight GDP drag on consumers, and offsets from fiscal measures and AI-related CapEx expensing.
00:00 Market Volatility Update
00:36 Oil Moves and Safe Havens
01:11 Sector Rotation Signals
01:41 Wholesale Data Snapshot
02:10 Tariffs Success Question
03:09 Trade Deals and Deficit
04:04 Wrap Up and Tomorrow
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel here, your midweek host. |
| 0:17.0 | On this Wednesday, July the 8th, a bit of volatility picking up today and mostly related |
| 0:23.5 | to a pickup in kinetic energy between the U.S. and Iran. |
| 0:27.3 | Iran ended up striking several different oil tankers. |
| 0:30.0 | The U.S. retaliated, striking 50, 60 different military targets across the country, different |
| 0:35.9 | comments from Trump online as well, citing that the agreement |
| 0:40.2 | was off. And so it's more back and forth there. Markets did sell off a bit, although far off the |
| 0:45.7 | lows on the day, and it ended up somewhat mixed. But the reality here is that you've got oil up |
| 0:53.1 | roughly 5% or so, a modest sell-off, but I'd call it a far cry from a rush out of risk assets and in a safe havens. |
| 1:01.4 | The dollar was modestly positive just a little bit. |
| 1:04.4 | Treasury yields ended up closing up about three basis points so that I wouldn't call that much of a move. |
| 1:09.3 | And then both gold and silver were down. |
| 1:11.6 | So again, not necessarily a huge rush into safe haven. Nonetheless, what I think has happened is the |
| 1:16.6 | market has become somewhat desensitized. And then also there's just more of a likelihood of an |
| 1:21.3 | off-ramp being sought sooner than later. What I did mention in there was the continued rotation. |
| 1:26.8 | And that actually undid a little bit today |
| 1:29.1 | because you actually had tech actually perform a little better. But all that to say, if you look at |
| 1:33.1 | percentage of sectors above their 50-day moving average, it's a stark difference. You've got |
| 1:37.7 | pharma, household products, utilities, 100% of the stocks inside of those sectors are all trading |
| 1:43.1 | above their 50-day moving average |
| 1:44.7 | that shows a lot of strength. |
... |
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