Tuesday - July 7, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 7 July 2026
⏱️ 6 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Brian Szytel recaps a quiet Tuesday, July 7, with markets closing modestly lower amid increased U.S.–Iran tensions involving tanker attacks and restrictions on Iran’s oil exports; crude rose about 3% to roughly $70.56 while gold dipped. Tech led the decline as semiconductors sold off, with the S&P 500 down ~0.5%, the Dow ~0.4%, and the Nasdaq down a little over 1%. Economic news was limited, but May’s U.S. trade deficit widened to $77B, about $20B more than the prior month. Despite the pullback, major indices are up around 10% year-to-date, reflecting a rotation from concentrated chip leaders (some down ~30% in 10 days) into defensives and broader participation. The 10-year yield rose ~7 bps to 4.55%. He also addresses concerns about Q1 profits boosted by mark-to-market gains on non-listed AI holdings, calling it non-recurring and two-sided.
00:00 Market Wrap Intro
00:11 Geopolitics Oil Moves
00:43 Tech Rotation Selloff
01:09 Trade Deficit Update
01:32 Year To Date Perspective
02:28 Rates And Macro Mix
02:39 Ask TBG Earnings Quirk
03:45 Closing Remarks
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.1 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel, your host this evening here on Tuesday, July the 7th. |
| 0:24.6 | In a pretty quiet overall day in markets, really, the market ended up closing lower on the day. And some of that was because of some increase in geopolitical |
| 0:30.1 | tensions with the U.S. and Iran. There was some attacks on tankers. And then the U.S. |
| 0:34.5 | revoked Iran's ability to export and sell oil. And so there's some |
| 0:38.9 | ongoing back and forth. And that's not necessarily new news, but just more of the same. Oil has |
| 0:45.1 | become somewhat desensitized to that. Crude was up today, but it was only up about 3%. We're now at |
| 0:51.0 | about $70.56 a barrel on crude. |
| 0:56.0 | Gold was down a little bit on the day, and really it was the resuming of this rotation trade that we've spoken about quite a bit. |
| 1:03.1 | Chip stocks, semiconductors were down today, meaningfully on the day. |
| 1:07.1 | S&P ended up closing lower by about 50 basis points. |
| 1:10.4 | Dow itself was down by about 40 basis points on the day. |
| 1:15.2 | NASDAQ was down a little over a percent. So you could see it was a much bigger, broader sell-off in technology stocks. |
| 1:21.3 | But from the economic side of things, it wasn't a lot of news out. There was a number out for the May U.S. trade deficit that |
| 1:29.8 | widened pretty significantly about 20 billion from the month prior. We printed a 77 billion |
| 1:35.9 | trade deficit for the month of May, wider than expected and wider than the month prior. So |
| 1:41.0 | that's really most of what went on in the market. What we've been reiterating |
| 1:46.2 | is that the market is not down on the year. The market is actually performing quite good. The |
| 1:51.0 | S&P is up about 9.5% on the year. That's not necessarily a bad market. But what is happening |
| 1:57.8 | is inside of that, you've just got a bigger disparity some of these chip names |
| 2:01.7 | and you can pick a handful of the biggest ones are down 30% and just the past 10 days so it's a pretty |
| 2:07.9 | big unwind there and then some of them more staples some of the more defensives are just simply |
... |
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