Wednesday - July 16, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 16 July 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Positive Market Trends and Economic Indicators Update
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, hosted by Brian Szytel on Wednesday, July 16th, the positive movements in the financial markets are highlighted, including a rise in the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq, and a drop in the 10-year yield. The episode discusses the significantly cooler than expected Producer Price Index (PPI) for June, which aligns with favorable inflation targets and hints at potential reductions in consumer prices. Other positive economic signals include an increase in industrial production and optimistic comments in the Fed's latest page book. Additionally, Brian addresses viewer questions about the stability of New York City bonds amidst a potential declining tax base and the feasibility of replacing income tax with a consumption tax, providing detailed insights into these financial concerns. The episode concludes with a preview of the upcoming economic data releases for the remainder of the week.
00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe
00:08 Market Overview: A Positive Day
00:34 Producer Price Index Insights
01:50 Industrial Production and Economic Activity
02:31 Financial Sector Highlights
03:12 Q&A: New York City Bonds and Tariffs
05:19 Upcoming Economic Indicators
05:36 Closing Remarks
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:11.3 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, July the 16th. Brian Saitel with you here on a nice Wednesday and generally positive day overall in markets. |
| 0:22.0 | We had the Dow close up 231 points. S&P was up a third of a percent. Nasdaq was up a quarter |
| 0:28.8 | of a percent. Ten year was down three bases points. So a bit of a rally in stocks, bit of a rally |
| 0:34.3 | in bonds and price, which dropped the yield. And all in all, a pretty good day. |
| 0:39.1 | And it was another read after yesterday the CPI data that we got. Today we got a producer price |
| 0:44.2 | index, so the PPI number that was also meaningfully cooler than expected on both core and |
| 0:49.9 | headline. So we got an unchanged number, meaning 0.0 on both headline and core, on the PPI number. |
| 0:56.9 | We were expecting 0.2% gain for both. This is for the month of June. Now, we did get a revision |
| 1:02.7 | higher for the month of May by 2 tenths of a percent, but nonetheless, this puts the |
| 1:09.1 | annualized numbers on the producer price index really right about where |
| 1:15.9 | the Fed is targeting. And remember, the producer price index is a forward-looking indicator. |
| 1:21.7 | It's basically the prices that sellers receive on the front end before they reach consumers. |
| 1:27.2 | So call it the wholesale price level. |
| 1:29.9 | And so that's coming down and that can be a precursor for ultimately the consumer prices |
| 1:34.4 | coming down too. |
| 1:35.3 | That said, we already got the cooler than expected CPI print yesterday anyway. |
| 1:40.4 | But this is more follow through on that number and it's why the rally today happened |
| 1:44.0 | and also why yields on the 10-year dropped a little bit. |
| 1:48.3 | But that puts the annualized number on headline at 2.3. |
| 1:51.9 | And on core, when you strip out food and energy at 2.6. |
| 1:55.4 | So mid-to-low twos. |
... |
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