Thursday - July 17, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 17 July 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Positive Economic Indicators and Market Insights - July 17th
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the record close of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, along with positive performances from the DOW. The market rally was driven by encouraging economic data including improved retail sales, jobless claims, manufacturing data, home builder sentiment, and lower than expected import prices. Seitel emphasizes the robust health of U.S. consumers, given the low unemployment rate and wage growth outpacing inflation. He also discusses market multiples, the risk in volatile investments like crypto and AI, and the importance of long-term asset management. Additionally, Szytel addresses questions about government spending's role in GDP and the growth of the money supply.
00:00 Welcome and Market Overview
00:25 Positive Economic Data Highlights
00:49 Consumer Strength and Employment
01:41 Manufacturing and Housing Insights
02:15 Market Sentiment and Risks
03:39 Government Spending and GDP
04:41 Money Supply Growth Discussion
05:15 Q&A and Closing Remarks
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.1 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Thursday, July the 17th. Brian Saitel with you here today on technically a record close on both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. |
| 0:23.4 | The Dow was up as well. |
| 0:24.5 | So we had a positive Dow by 229 points. |
| 0:27.8 | S&P was up half of a percent. |
| 0:30.1 | NASDAQ up seven-tenths of a percent. |
| 0:32.4 | Bond market was a snooze fest. |
| 0:34.5 | So rates didn't change at all 10 years at 445. |
| 0:39.5 | And all of this was based on positive economic data, pretty much across the board. I'll call it a pulperia positive data, |
| 0:43.9 | because you had about five data points that came out that were in the green. We had retail sales |
| 0:48.8 | that were much better than expected. We got a big snapback. If you remember in May, we had that |
| 0:53.6 | nine-tenths of a percent decline. And this month, we had a big snapback if you remember in may we had that nine-tenths of a percent decline and this |
| 0:57.2 | month we had a 0.6% increase when only a 0.2% was expected so big snapback from may retail sales and |
| 1:04.7 | lo and behold you can almost always count on the u.s. consumer that is fully employed. Remember, we've got 4.2% unemployment |
| 1:12.3 | right now. So people have jobs. You've got real wage growth, at least now, where people are making |
| 1:17.7 | more that inflation is going up. That is a good thing, obviously. And you've got record strong |
| 1:23.0 | balance sheets. The consumer has basically never been stronger from a balance sheet perspective. |
| 1:30.3 | So all that to say, they're out to spend money, and that doesn't shock me at all. You also had, though, on the day, initial jobless claims come out better than expected. |
| 1:34.3 | We got a 221 print, and we're thinking it was going to be closer to 230. |
| 1:38.3 | If you remember, we were in the low 200s forever, and we started moving higher towards that 250 level that was caused for concern, and now we're drifting back down towards 220s. |
| 1:48.5 | And that's pretty positive for the employment picture. |
| 1:51.1 | Very balanced labor market right now. |
... |
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