Wednesday - January 22, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 22 January 2025
⏱️ 6 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this Dividend Cafe commentary, recorded on January 22nd from Newport Beach, Brian Szytel discusses the recent market movements, highlighting an intraday breach of the S&P 500 closing high and closing disparities led by the technology sector. He also addresses recent economic data, including a weaker leading economic indicator. Seitel responds to a question about the bond market's recovery post-2022's downturn, advising against expecting a significant rebound but emphasizing the value of high-grade fixed income yields and portfolio diversification. The episode concludes with an invitation for further questions and consultations.
00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe
00:23 Market Performance Overview
01:36 Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment
02:16 Bond Market Analysis and Insights
04:00 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
04:24 Disclaimer and Legal Information
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, January the 22nd, and Brian Saitel with you here in our Newport Beach, California, TPG headquarters. |
| 0:23.9 | A positive day overall in markets, and we actually intraday went above the closing high. |
| 0:29.3 | We breached $6,100, but just barely on the day, and then we ended up closing just below, about four points below, |
| 0:36.4 | an all-time high on the S&P. So we're just within |
| 0:39.1 | a whisker of it. Brett today, meaning internal strength, was actually weaker. We've seen that now |
| 0:45.1 | for six straight sessions where breadth has actually been quite strong, which is a momentum indicator. |
| 0:50.3 | Weakened a little bit today, but it was a disparity in returns, largely driven in the technology |
| 0:55.8 | sector and the talk around an AI investment of $500 billion called Stargate between different |
| 1:03.5 | corporations like SoftBank and Oracle and some others. So some exuberance are on AI that moved |
| 1:08.5 | the NASDAQ a little bit more than everything else. So on the day, you had the Dow that was up about a third of a percent, which is 130 points. |
| 1:16.7 | You had the S&P up about two thirds of a percent. |
| 1:19.5 | And then the NASDAQ was up about 1.3 percent. |
| 1:22.5 | So disparity in returns there. |
| 1:24.3 | On the 10 year, you had yields up four bases points. |
| 1:27.4 | So we closed at 461. |
| 1:29.3 | Again, some better growth prospects has started to pull rates a little bit higher here the last session or so. |
| 1:36.3 | On the day from an economic standpoint, it was actually another quiet day. Frankly, this week, |
| 1:43.3 | obviously, markets were closed Monday, but it's been a quieter week on the economic calendar. There'll actually another quiet day. Frankly, this week, obviously markets were closed Monday, |
| 1:44.8 | but it's been a quieter week on the economic calendar. There'll be some more data out the next |
| 1:49.6 | two days, as I mentioned before. But there was a leading economic indicator number that was a little |
| 1:55.3 | weaker than expected. It was negative point one, and that's down from November's positive point four. |
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