Tuesday - January 21, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 21 January 2025
⏱️ 6 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Market Updates and Team Meetings: Insights from Dividend Cafe
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, hosted by Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group's Newport Beach office, the discussion covers market activity following the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Key points include a significant rebound in the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ indices, observations on corporate margins, particularly in the financial sector, and the impact of potential policy changes on the market. The episode also highlights a quiet economic week, leading economic indicators to be discussed later, and The Bahnsen Group's annual team meeting aimed at enhancing team culture and business efficiency. A long-form Dividend Cafe installment is expected on Friday.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
01:10 Corporate Margins and Sector Performance
02:36 Animal Spirits and Market Sentiment
03:14 Upcoming Economic Indicators
03:37 The Bahnsen Group Annual Team Meeting
04:21 Conclusion and Sign-Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:11.6 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, January the 21st, and Brian Saitel with you here in our Newport Beach office of the Bonson Group here for a very big week of |
| 0:24.2 | company meetings and client events and a whole slew of different things that I'll get into. |
| 0:31.8 | But for now, on the market day, we actually had a nice positive day here. |
| 0:36.3 | We were closed yesterday, as you know, |
| 0:37.8 | for the Martin Luther King Jr. Observance and National Holiday. So we reopened today and the Dow |
| 0:44.0 | closed up over 500 points, 537. The S&P was up about 0.8% and NASDAQ was up about a half of a |
| 0:52.1 | percent. So it's this continued rotation. Year to date, |
| 0:56.1 | the Dow Jones is up something around three and a half percent. The other indices are closer to |
| 1:02.0 | two and a half percent. And so there's some outperformance in some of those more value-oriented |
| 1:07.1 | names, particularly some of the financials this year. The tenure was down three basis |
| 1:12.8 | points, so interest rates continue to have normalcy and to calm down from their run-up. |
| 1:19.1 | We're now at 458 on the tenure. So what I wrote about today and there was we've talked about |
| 1:25.4 | earnings and we've talked about the expectations and one of the |
| 1:28.7 | risks to markets is not that good things won't happen that we think they will, but that the |
| 1:32.6 | expectations are very lofty. And so you can get disappointment. That said, if you look at margins |
| 1:38.7 | inside of corporate America right now, they're the highest they've ever been, going back to 1990 at |
| 1:44.1 | least. And that's where my thinking goes back to. So're the highest they've ever been, going back to 1990 at least. And that's where |
| 1:45.5 | my thinking goes back to. So in the modern era, this is the highest percentage of margin that we've |
| 1:51.3 | had. If you get some continued rotation back into some sectors like energy and health care, |
| 1:56.4 | which has had negative numbers on the earnings growth side, If you start to get some positive numbers there, |
| 2:01.8 | we're looking at about a 13.7% margin in the market in the S&P 500. |
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