Wednesday - August 20, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 20 August 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Market Update and Housing Sector Insights: August 20th
In this episode of Dividend Cafe on August 20th, host Brian Szytel discusses the day's market performance, noting slight gains in the DOW and declines in the S&P and Nasdaq. He highlights a continued rotation from growth to value stocks, particularly in the AI sector, and stable interest rates. Brian also addresses the recently released hawkish minutes from the July Fed meeting, the impact of the non-farm payroll report, and speculates on the potential outcomes of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole. Shifting focus to the housing market, Brian explains the current challenges faced by home builders, including low sentiment and high sales incentives, despite an apparent rise in home builder stocks. He concludes by discussing the distinctions between nominal and real returns, emphasizing the broader market context and biases in financial reporting. The episode wraps up with a preview of upcoming economic data releases, including jobless claims and existing home sales.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:44 Fed Meeting Insights and Market Reactions
01:20 Housing Market Analysis
02:13 Home Builder Sentiment and Stock Performance
03:31 Inflation Adjusted Returns Discussion
04:41 Conclusion and Upcoming Data
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe this Wednesday, August the 20th. Brian Saitel with you here on a down day overall the Dow actually eeked out again we |
| 0:22.8 | were up about 16 points on the Dow. SMP was down a quarter of a percent |
| 0:27.7 | NASDAQ was down point seven percent roughly so as a follow-through really of |
| 0:32.8 | yesterday's action where you had continued rotation from growth to value |
| 0:36.7 | particularly a lot of the artificial |
| 0:38.3 | intelligence names sold off the most. We had more of the defenses outperforming and more of the |
| 0:44.6 | value names outperforming on the day. Interest rates were largely unchanged. Yeah, the tenure down |
| 0:49.8 | about a basis point, we closed at 429. And there wasn't a lot of news out on the economic calendar |
| 0:55.7 | today. You did have the minutes from the last Fed meeting get released. This was July's meeting. |
| 1:01.0 | We were more hawkish. There was a lot more talk of concern over inflation than there wasn't of |
| 1:06.2 | employment. And so the issue with it, what made it all stale and why the market didn't care. |
| 1:11.5 | And actually, the market ended up moving higher after that meeting was before the last |
| 1:15.5 | non-farm payroll report, which was abysmal. |
| 1:17.6 | And so that paradigm all shifted. |
| 1:20.2 | Back when that first Fed meeting happened in July, futures were at about a 50-50 as far as |
| 1:25.0 | a September rate cut and they went up to about 90% following |
| 1:27.9 | the payroll report. Today's minutes were a little bit dismissed there. I shifted gears. I wanted |
| 1:33.1 | to talk a little bit about housing. We talk about interest rates a lot. The market is very much |
| 1:37.8 | paying attention to what Powell will or won't say on Friday, a Jackson Hole, what he may or may not |
| 1:43.1 | allude to and what can be read |
| 1:45.0 | into it or not. |
... |
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