Tuesday - August 19, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 19 August 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Market Update and Economic Insights on Dividend Cafe - August 19
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel provides an update on the market activities of Tuesday, August 19. He discusses the mixed performance of major indices, with the DOW closing slightly up, while the S&P and Nasdaq experienced declines. Brian highlights a notable sell-off in technology stocks and mentions how value stocks outperformed. He also covers economic news, particularly around housing starts, and the complicated sentiment among home builders due to interest rates and affordability concerns. Additionally, he answers questions on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and its impact on inflation, and the role of money supply and velocity in measuring inflation. Brian concludes with a recap of stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings, discusses expectations for Q3, and mentions the anticipated focus on employment figures and potential Fed interest rate cuts in September.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:59 Housing Market Insights
02:24 Inflation and The Fed's Balance Sheet
04:16 Q2 Earnings Recap
04:56 Looking Ahead: Employment and Fed Actions
05:05 Conclusion and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, August the 19th. Ryan Saitel with you here. |
| 0:19.0 | Today on a fairly quiet day overall in markets, the in somewhat |
| 0:22.9 | mixed, the Dow actually closed up just a little bit. It was up 10 points. SMP was down half of a |
| 0:28.9 | percent, actually more closer to six tenths of a percent. NASDAQ was down 1.46% on the day. Bit of a |
| 0:36.5 | sell-off. S&P and Dow are both positive earlier in the morning and then |
| 0:39.8 | lost some steam. And then this was a much bigger sell-off today in technology and some of those |
| 0:44.4 | more overvalued parts of the market. A lot of the value names really outperformed across the board. |
| 0:49.6 | On yields, you had the 10-year down about three basis points. We closed at 431 on the 10-year. |
| 0:55.7 | So, again, interest rates have been oscillating between roughly 4-25 and 435, even through the |
| 1:01.6 | employment figure that was a disappointment. And also through the numbers that we got, |
| 1:07.3 | both on CPI and also on PPI. Interest rates are fairly well anchored at this |
| 1:11.9 | point. A couple of pieces of economic news out in the calendar we had largely around housing. So we had |
| 1:17.8 | new housing starts for July, up better than expected. We got a 5.2% increase on the month. That's up to |
| 1:25.7 | $1.428 million. That's ahead of about $1.31 million on the month. That's up to 1.428 million. That's ahead of about 1.31 million on the |
| 1:30.4 | estimate. So a decent amount and actually is surprisingly better in July for housing starts. |
| 1:36.4 | You also had June get revised up a little bit as well. The reason why it was a surprise is because |
| 1:40.7 | that's been the opposite. And we know from Home Builder sentiment what's really going on in that market right now, which is prices are starting to be cut to get inventory to move. And builders are sitting on lots. And that market is just slowing down. And mostly it's related to interest rates and affordability, as I've written about a few different times. And in fact, the second part of the number showed that because if you look at new permits |
| 2:03.1 | going forward for July, they actually were down 2.8% for the month. |
| 2:08.0 | So take the housing start number with a grain of salt here going forward. |
| 2:11.8 | We've got permits that are lower. |
| 2:14.0 | And that's actually the seventh time in eight months now that we've had a disappointment on new permits. |
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