We're Halfway Through this Cycle, Gimbel Predicts
Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg
3.8 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 23 May 2018
⏱️ 25 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Hans Redeker, Global Head of FX Strategy at Morgan Stanley, gives us an overview of dollar strength and the slump in Turkish lira. Isaac Boltansky, Compass Point Research Policy Research Managing Director, says the new Dodd-Frank legislation is a modest, narrowly-tailored bill. Don Gimbel, Geneva Advisors Portfolio Manager, predicts there's a couple of years left in this economic cycle. Nabila Ahmed, Bloomberg News Deals Reporter, says Comcast is one of the most indebted American companies.
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| 0:56.7 | Just want to zoom in on the FX market first of all and bring in Hans Radica |
| 1:05.9 | Morgan Stanley Investment Management Global head of FX strategy and he joins us |
| 1:10.6 | from London Hans let's begin with Turkey. |
| 1:13.1 | What constitutes a currency crisis |
| 1:15.9 | and how close are we to one in Turkey? |
| 1:20.1 | So obviously the recent movement in the currency had been acquired to dramatic and you have to put |
| 1:25.8 | that in the context of real interest rates. |
| 1:28.7 | So in analyzing foreign exchange, we have always to think about what type of a rear rate level do you require to cover up for |
| 1:36.4 | internal and external imbalances. The Turkish rear rate and environment is obviously too low for the taste of investors and that is |
| 1:46.0 | why the exchange rate is currently selling off. |
| 1:49.2 | Now when you look into what is priced in on rate hikes in Turkey is about 200 basis points. |
| 1:55.0 | So in order to stabilize the exchange rate you would have to see rate hikes going |
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