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Full Signal

Wall Street is IGNORING this red flag in markets! | Sonali Basak

Full Signal

Phil Rosen

Investing, Business

4.818 Ratings

🗓️ 3 June 2026

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Sonali Basak is the chief investment strategist at iCapital. She joined Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss the leading indicators in private markets for stocks, the AI infrastructure buildout, red flags for investors, and the historic IPO boom led by SpaceX.


This episode is sponsored by Public: https://public.com/openingbell


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Timestamps:


0:00 - Private markets' hidden signal

2:27 - AI up, software down

3:33 - Software loan squeeze

6:32 - SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic

9:12 - Snowflake vs Databricks

15:13 - Hyperscaler cash flows

18:13 - Everyone is overweight AI

21:52 - Financials look cheap

29:35 - Highest-conviction call


Disclosure: Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at public.com/disclosures/ga. See terms of Match Program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time.


#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed

Transcript

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0:00.0

Shanali, it is great to see you. I want to get right into the leading indicator of private markets for public markets.

0:06.3

I'm not really sure what to look at when this comes up as a topic. But what are you seeing right now.

0:11.2

No, private markets are really important to watch, especially when you think about what's happening in technology.

0:15.6

So I think a lot of people talk about the negatives, software, what have you.

0:19.1

But let's talk about everything that happened

0:21.0

2022 onwards. Post-chat TPT, post that moment when we saw that precipitous rise in interest rates

0:28.3

following inflation, you saw private markets react pretty heavily. So what are we seeing now?

0:33.3

I think that the discipline you're seeing in private markets, when you're seeing dollars

0:38.3

put into the ground for new technology investments, it's a really important thing to watch.

0:43.6

I'll give you one example, Vista.

0:45.8

Vista is talking about this thing called Rule of 70.

0:48.3

Why does that matter?

0:49.7

Rule of 70 is your profit growth and your revenue growth adding up to 40 is used to be rule of 40,

0:57.2

right? Have you ever heard of this before? Very vaguely. Oh, well, you know, if you're a CFO of a

1:01.6

company, a lot of CFOs will want to operate by that rule of 40 standard as it pertains to

1:06.4

their revenue growth and their profit growth. But if you have one big money manager and now more and more

1:11.2

of them saying, actually, it's rule of 70, then one of two things have to happen within the

1:15.5

companies that new investors are putting dollars into. Either your revenue grows faster or your

1:20.7

profit grows faster to the tune of that rule of 70. Now, if you think about what that means is

1:27.2

for public markets, can you imagine

1:30.0

if more and more investors start to demand a rule of 70? You are putting a lot more pressure

1:35.8

on public market companies to deliver either faster revenue growth or faster profit growth.

...

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