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More or Less

Using statistics in court

More or Less

BBC

News Commentary, Science, Mathematics, News

4.63.7K Ratings

🗓️ 6 January 2012

⏱️ 29 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Tim Harford tackles the use of statistics in court, the average rise in rail fares, infinity and resolves another marital dispute about probability.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Just before this BBC podcast gets underway, here's something you may not know.

0:04.7

My name's Linda Davies and I Commission Podcasts for BBC Sounds.

0:08.5

As you'd expect, at the BBC we make podcasts of the very highest quality featuring the most knowledgeable experts and genuinely engaging voices.

0:18.0

What you may not know is that the BBC makes podcasts about all kinds of things like pop stars,

0:24.6

poltergeist, cricket, and conspiracy theories and that's just a few examples.

0:29.7

If you'd like to discover something a little bit unexpected, find your next podcast over at BBC Sounds.

0:36.0

You're listening to a more or less podcast from the BBC.

0:40.0

For more information about the programme, please go to the website BBC.co.

0:45.2

UK slash Radio 4.

0:48.7

Hello and welcome to more or less, your weekly guide to the numbers in the news and in life.

0:54.3

This week we intervene in another mathematical marital misunderstanding.

0:58.6

I've had an ongoing argument with my husband who insist the odds of getting six consecutive numbers in the lottery, i.e.

1:04.8

one, two, three, four, five, six are higher than getting six random numbers.

1:09.0

As the price of a train ticket rises yet again, we'll ask how the cost of UK rail travel really stacks up against continental

1:16.6

opposition. But first, the conviction this week of Gary Dobson and David Norris

1:22.2

for the murderer of Stephen Lawrence 18 years ago

1:24.8

is a good example of how important scientific evidence has become in the courtroom.

1:29.8

The verdict hinged on tiny bits of circumstantial evidence, including clothing fibers and blood stains.

1:36.0

One way to make sense of evidence like this is by analyzing it statistically.

1:40.0

How, for example, might Stephen Lawrence's DNA have got onto the suspect's clothes?

1:45.9

What was the chance that contamination might have happened, as well as the small odds of someone

1:49.8

else having the same DNA profile.

...

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