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More or Less

2011 in numbers

More or Less

BBC

News Commentary, Science, Mathematics, News

4.63.7K Ratings

🗓️ 30 December 2011

⏱️ 28 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

A guide to interesting, informative or just plain idiosyncratic numbers of the year. Plus, does probability really exist? Contributors: David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University; Owen Spottiswoode, Fullfact.org; Tracey Brown from Sense about Science; Jil Matheson, UK Statistics Authority; George Monbiot; Sir Mark Walport, Director of the Wellcome Trust; Money Box presenter Paul Lewis; Sports Statistician, Robert Mastrodomenico; Dr Linda Yeuh Economics Correspondent at Bloomberg; Stand up Mathematician Matt Parker

Transcript

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0:00.0

You're listening to a more or less podcast from the BBC. For more information about the program,

0:05.9

please go to the website bbc.co.uk slash radio4.

0:12.8

Hello and if you're listening to our Sunday repeat, happy new year. This is a special edition

0:18.0

of more or less and it'll serve as a guide to interesting, informative or just plain idiosyncratic

0:24.6

numbers of the year. The credit crunch and the continuing financial crisis have made really big

0:30.0

numbers a familiar part of our news bulletins and everyday language. Billions and trillions are

0:35.3

tossed around as though they're just a step away from each other but a couple of letters makes

0:39.6

all the difference. After all, there are a thousand billions in each trillion and roll over trillions

0:45.4

as a new kid on the block. My number of the year is a quadrillion.

0:50.6

That is a thousand trillions or one followed by 15 zeros.

1:00.8

Not a number that many of us would have had come across especially in the context of the total

1:11.1

amount of debt because that's when this number which is rarely used was first raised.

1:21.2

It's a number mentioned just recently by a Japanese vice minister when he was talking about the

1:28.5

level to which Japanese government debt could climb. He forecasted that by March of next year the

1:34.5

total amount of government debt in Japan could exceed a quadrillion. Now let me make it clear

1:41.2

that is in Japanese yen so in dollar terms it's about 13.8 trillion and that number is astounding

1:52.8

and it is more than twice the size of the entire Japanese economy.

2:00.8

But I suppose for me we've now gotten to a place where the amount of public sector debt

2:07.6

is being expressed in numbers that we would have never come across before. It's symptomatic

2:15.0

of some of the ailments afflicting the world economy right now.

2:23.5

Another couple of numbers which I think captures this very well which is the median debt to GDP ratio

2:30.4

of developed economies versus developing economies. If you take the G20 you break them up into

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