Hi everybody this is Scott Sad some of you may have heard me in the past use the following

weight example in describing the three possible states of the world that can result after you decide to implement certain decisions

and behaviors in a given day as relating to your weight, right? So depending on what I eat that day,

depending on how much I exercise that day, will result in a net calculation of my calories which will then be computed against my basal

caloric needs for the day and then at the end of the day only one of three events can happen.

I can either gain weight that day.

My weight could stay exactly the same or my weight can go down.

If you want to put it in more formal mathematical terms for those of you who are mathematically

inclined, there is something an applied mathematics called Markoff change which basically says that the probability of all states of events at T plus 1 depend on wherever you were at time, you know, what happened at time T.

And so there's a stochastic process that allows you to

calculate in a Markov chain what is likely to unfold. So in the case of the

weight example we may not know what is the probability of by gaining weight,

staying the same weight or losing weight, but there really are only three possible states of the world. I often use this example because it's

a beautiful and elegant way to try to understand how a particular decision, whether it be at the individual level, at the group level,

at the family level, at the societal level, will affect some dependent variable.

So for example if you create a society where every incoming

immigrant to that society is chosen to only be a vegan. We are only going

to allow in our host countries people who are vegan. then you could say, well, okay, if we make that particular

decision, how likely is it that there will be a greater, an increase of animals killed in the society, no change in animals killed or a reduction of animals killed.

Okay. So now let's apply it to immigration in general. If you let in people into your society

that come from cultures that have very, very high Jew hatred as an endemic feature of their culture will the host

society see an increase in Jew hatred no change in Jew hatred or a decrease in Jew hatred.

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