Update from the Battlefield: Drones, Distance, and Diminishing Returns for Russia

War on the Rocks

News, Politics

4.6 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 9 April 2026

⏱️ 28 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Michael Kofman joins Ryan to unpack the current state of the Russo-Ukrainian War after his recent trip to the front. They examine how drone warfare has transformed the battlefield into a dispersed contest over a vast kill zone, why Russian infiltration tactics have failed to produce meaningful gains, and how Ukraine is working to close gaps in its strike capabilities. They also explore the growing pressure from Russian long-range strikes and how the war in Iran is beginning to shape the conflict.

Transcript

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0:00.0	You are listening to the War on the Rocks podcast on Strategy, Defense, and Foreign Affairs.
0:13.3	My name is Ryan Evans. I founded War in the Rocks.
0:15.9	And I'm sitting here with Mike Kaufman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
0:19.9	We're here to talk about the war in Ukraine, even though there's a war in Iran, this war between
0:25.2	Ukraine and Russia certainly hasn't stopped or even slowed down much.
0:29.2	So, Mike, you were in Ukraine, what, two months ago now, a month ago?
0:33.3	By the month ago, a little less than a month ago, actually.
0:35.3	I came back mid-March.
0:37.2	And what were some of the big takeaways in terms of top-level strategic issues of how the war is going?
0:42.7	So for me, the big takeaways were first.
0:45.0	Ukraine's actually doing quite better than expected.
0:47.1	The front stabilized around the winter as usual, but coming out of the winter and early spring,
0:53.4	Russian forces began mechanized assaults again,
0:55.8	but they haven't been doing that well.
0:57.8	Why is that?
0:59.0	So first, I think that the Russian military has just not been able to generate substantial
1:04.6	reserves or expand the force, given the losses they've been taking over the course of 2025.
1:09.5	I think they can sustain the fight maybe at this intensity or a bit less, but it's increasingly
1:14.9	clear that they can't do significantly more or better, at least right now, than the way
1:20.2	we saw them perform last year.
1:22.6	Second, Ukraine is getting better and better at general employment, even though they have, to some extent, lost their advantages in the space over the course of 2025.
1:35.3	Well, let's dig into that. What were those advantages and how did they lose them?
	...

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