This is the Johnco Unraveling Podcast episode 19 with myself and Darrell Cooper.

Alright, so there are a lot of variables in war.

In fact there are so many variables in war that it is impossible to predict an outcome.

In fact I would go so far as to say it is even difficult to predict a range of outcomes

of what can happen.

It is sort of like looking at MMA, right?

We can understand and that is kind of one of the things that makes MMA and all sports

exciting but MMA probably even more so because there are variables that can completely change

the paper prediction of what should happen in a fight.

So we can look at war in a similar fashion that it is one of the few things that you

can predict about war is that it is not going to go how you expected it to go.

And while you may kill a bunch of enemy, you are probably going to lose more people

than you wanted to, more of your own people.

While you might mitigate the collateral damage that you cause, you are probably going to

kill more civilians than you wanted to.

When you may achieve some of the tactical and strategic goals that you have set forth,

you are not going to achieve everything that you wanted to and the things that you win.

What you take away from that victory is likely to sow the seeds of future war.

And even the fact of the way you perceive things, the fact that you in your own mind and

in the mind of your people, you might be totally right in the right.

But the popular opinion that others have might not be what you wanted it to be.

And if you lose a war, your confidence is going to be shaken.

...