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Wall Street Breakfast

Unemployment falls even as job gains ease

Wall Street Breakfast

Seeking Alpha

Business News, Investing, Business, News

4.11K Ratings

🗓️ 4 August 2023

⏱️ 5 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action news and analysis.

0:09.0

Good afternoon. Today is Friday, August 4th, and I'm your host, Kim Khan. Our top story in today's session.

0:16.0

The U.S. non-form payrolls rose by 187,000 in July, a little lower than the 200,000 expected. June was revised down to 185,000, but the

0:25.8

unemployment rate ticked down for a second straight month to 3.5% from 3.6% in

0:31.2

June. Average hourly earnings growth stayed steady, rising 0.4% on the month, stronger

0:37.0

than the 0.3% increase expected. On a year-to-year basis, earnings are at 4.4% compared with 4.2% expected.

0:45.7

Seeking Alpha analyst Damir Tokich says the wage growth is inflationary,

0:50.3

while the lower jobless rate points to a labor shortage.

0:53.0

Allian's advisor Mohammed Al-Arian says this month's report has something for everyone in terms of the type of landing the U.S economy is headed for.

1:01.0

The softer landing camp will take comfort in the lower than expected

1:03.7

payroll gain and the harder landing camp will point to a hotter wage growth of 4.4

1:07.9

percent and the fall in the unemployment rate. The chance of a quarter point rate hike

1:12.2

at the Fed's September meeting edged up slightly to 18.5% from 18%.

1:17.6

Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee is pointed to this week

1:23.7

St Louis Fed economist published a new monthly weekly index of usual

1:28.0

weekly hours worked per capita that showed a sharp snap back in hours worked

1:32.2

to near pre-Covid levels in contrast to the slow recovery after the Great Recession.

1:37.0

In Q2, hours worked showed a sharp slowdown and July data showed another down-tick that Tokich says signals the upcoming

1:44.1

economic weakness this fall. This is the worst case scenario for the stock market

1:48.3

sticky inflation and slower growth. The Fed would likely be forced to hike

1:51.8

into the slowdown, he adds.

1:54.0

Now I look at today's trading. Stocks are higher and choppy trading following the Jaws numbers.

...

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