Unemployment falls even as job gains ease
Wall Street Breakfast
Seeking Alpha
4.1 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 4 August 2023
⏱️ 5 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
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Show Notes:
U.S. jobs growth in July comes in lower than expected, unemployment falls further
As we watch payrolls, is the Fed watching hours worked?
Dividend Roundup: IBM, Walmart, BP, Kimberly-Clark, and more
Roth MKM still sees recession as likely -- maybe before the end of 2023
Fortinet plummets as analysts express concerns after full-year guidance cut
Tupperware stock surges 51% before the bell on debt restructuring deal
Wall Street Breakfast on Twitter
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action news and analysis. |
| 0:09.0 | Good afternoon. Today is Friday, August 4th, and I'm your host, Kim Khan. Our top story in today's session. |
| 0:16.0 | The U.S. non-form payrolls rose by 187,000 in July, a little lower than the 200,000 expected. June was revised down to 185,000, but the |
| 0:25.8 | unemployment rate ticked down for a second straight month to 3.5% from 3.6% in |
| 0:31.2 | June. Average hourly earnings growth stayed steady, rising 0.4% on the month, stronger |
| 0:37.0 | than the 0.3% increase expected. On a year-to-year basis, earnings are at 4.4% compared with 4.2% expected. |
| 0:45.7 | Seeking Alpha analyst Damir Tokich says the wage growth is inflationary, |
| 0:50.3 | while the lower jobless rate points to a labor shortage. |
| 0:53.0 | Allian's advisor Mohammed Al-Arian says this month's report has something for everyone in terms of the type of landing the U.S economy is headed for. |
| 1:01.0 | The softer landing camp will take comfort in the lower than expected |
| 1:03.7 | payroll gain and the harder landing camp will point to a hotter wage growth of 4.4 |
| 1:07.9 | percent and the fall in the unemployment rate. The chance of a quarter point rate hike |
| 1:12.2 | at the Fed's September meeting edged up slightly to 18.5% from 18%. |
| 1:17.6 | Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee is pointed to this week |
| 1:23.7 | St Louis Fed economist published a new monthly weekly index of usual |
| 1:28.0 | weekly hours worked per capita that showed a sharp snap back in hours worked |
| 1:32.2 | to near pre-Covid levels in contrast to the slow recovery after the Great Recession. |
| 1:37.0 | In Q2, hours worked showed a sharp slowdown and July data showed another down-tick that Tokich says signals the upcoming |
| 1:44.1 | economic weakness this fall. This is the worst case scenario for the stock market |
| 1:48.3 | sticky inflation and slower growth. The Fed would likely be forced to hike |
| 1:51.8 | into the slowdown, he adds. |
| 1:54.0 | Now I look at today's trading. Stocks are higher and choppy trading following the Jaws numbers. |
... |
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