We are very pleased to announce the full line-up for our Coffee House Shots live event on the 26th

February at the Emanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Coffee House Shots regulars, Michael Gove,

Casey Balls, Kate Andrews, as well as very special guests, Robert Jenrick and Jonathan Ashworth

for a look to the year ahead. They will be tackling such questions as, can the Chancellor

reframe the budget in her first spring statement?

What will Trump's first 100 days look like?

And will reform cause an upset at the local elections?

So that's Emmanuel Centre, 7.30, 26th of February.

And for tickets, go to spectator.com.com.com.com.

We look forward to seeing you there.

Hello and welcome to Coffee House Shots. I'm James Hill and I'm joined today by the

spectator political editor Katie Balls and Keir Giles from Chatham House. Now today marks three

years since the anniversary of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. Kear, can you just give us a sense

of how we got here, the different

stages of the conflict and where we're at now? Well, it's true to say that this conflict has gone

through several different, very distinct phases, a lot of which came as a surprise when they first

happened, plenty of shocks and things going not the way people had expected from the initial

Russian failure, which many people were surprised by because they thought that this was going to be a walkover and Ukraine would not be in a position to resist.

Ukraine succeeding in defending Kiev and then pushing back the Russians being evicted from large swathes of Ukrainian territory.

Lots of different substantial turnarounds before we settled into this grinding phase

of attrition that we've seen over the course of more or less the last year.

But I think it's probably perfectly reasonable to say that the latest turnaround is the

...