This is the Friends of History Debating Society. I'm John Bachelorette. It's a pleasure to welcome Professor H.J. Mackender, International Relations, to comment on Ukraine conflict six capital, six points of view.

We begin in Moscow, but the professor needs to make some remarks about the general situation I want to read headlines from these last hours from Bloomberg Europe.

Russia is getting around sanctions to secure supply of key chips for war. Subhead, Biden-Lawd's Germany's military aid to Ukraine in Schultz meeting. Subhead, the US is giving Ukraine another 400 million for ammunition rocket supplies. Subhead, Russia's revenue from oil and gas almost cut in half in February.

Professor, a very good evening to you. The chaos in Ukraine defies summary. Your observations please. Good evening to you.

Good evening. What you've just read suggests that chaos in Europe is not negligible. But just before we set off on our turf capitals, I want to state something that we all know when we've talked about before. Namely, there's peace talk and there's now peace talk.

I simply want our friends to bear my two points. The first is that peace negotiations in history almost always come about after some major military gain or loss.

Thus, when did Germany seek an armistice in 1918? It was only after the Australians, the Americans, the British had breached the impenetrable hidden bird line at St. Quentin on September 29, 1918.

Well, next thing you know, the World War I is being discussed. And I don't, at this time, as I look at Ukraine, I don't see any military success for either side on the horizon that is going to be decisive in the sense that it's going to convince them all that they've got to make peace.

The second thing is that even after you get negotiation started, you can succeed or you can fail. At the Congress of Vienna in 1815, that followed Napoleon's final defeat at Waterloo on June 18th, the same year.

There came into being the Congress system and really a period of rather remarkable peace, which lasted, I would say, at least until 1848, maybe until 1871, maybe until 1890, in Europe.

But on the other hand, after the breakthrough of the Himmunger line, we had the peace treaty talks at Versailles and we got the treaty on 28th of June 1919. And all it did, it was such a hideous treaty, that it provided a break in the middle of what was really one war, the dominated 20th century Europe.

Compared by Europeans to the Peloponnesian War, the two halves of which are separated by the peace of Nicaris, which lasted, it was shorter than the peace between World War I and World War II, but from 421 to 414, there was a cobbled together piece swarned by dropping spears of the water and stuff.

But they got back in 70 years, they were back fighting and likewise in Europe. So I think in the week and months ahead, I fear that we're going to see yet again how difficult war termination is going to be in Ukraine.

And also how poorly prepared we Americans and our allies are to do this.

And we go to Moscow. The events of this last week are chaotic from the battlefield, but there's one small scene that comes up again and again, which is at the G20 Ministers meeting in New Delhi hosted by the Prime Minister, Mr. Modi.

There was what we're told an unannounced unscheduled conversation between the Secretary of State, Mr. Blinken and the Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, Mr. Lavrov.

The conversation has said to have been less than 10 minutes and the matters at hand were Russia's behavior in Ukraine, the hostage taking of an American soldier in Moscow.

And in general, Moscow is bad acting these last months, especially about withdrawing or postponing or shelving or exiting from the new start treaty.

Yes.

How do you measure this unannounced unscheduled meeting between the two foreign ministers? Does it look to you arranged?

Oh, I'm sure it's arranged, but what's difficult to say about it is I don't know what Mr. Blinken thinks in any case what he really thinks, but Mr. Lavrov is, I mean, I've known Russian officials who were, I knew the man who was ambassador to the UN under the Soviet Union and then went on to be ambassador under Russia.

And he wasn't a communist at all. I mean, he just was doing his job and he was reading Comercent which is the equivalent of the Wall Street Journal or something in Moscow very, very friendly and nice guy, but he had been putting on a mask.

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