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If you'd forgotten about the war in Ukraine, then this week's appearance of drones over the Kremlin

will have reminded you that the biggest armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War continues.

Winter has passed. Spring is here,

and President Vladimir Zelensky says the Ukrainian counteroffensive is close.

Is it? If it is, what is it subjective?

Is it likely to succeed?

And if it does succeed, what then? Step inside the briefing room and together

we'll find out. First, what's the situation on the ground? Michael Clark is Professor of Defence

Studies at King's College London and specialist advisor to the Joint Committee

on the National Security Strategy.

When I last spoke to him on the briefing room in January,

he told me that both sides were digging in for winter.

So what's happened in the last four months?

But first, I had to ask him what his theory is about those drones.

Well, I'd be astonished if Kiev created this event

because it would be monumentally stupid of Kiev to do that.

And in fact, looking at the forensic material that we're aware of now,

there were two drones about 16 minutes apart.

The first one came from the west and struck above the dome at 227 in the

morning, created some burning, which didn't seem to do very much damage. And then 16 minutes later,

at 243, a second drone from the east came and went past the dome and then seemed to explode

...