This is Paul Adamson and I'm in conversation with Peter Kellner. Peter Kellner is the president of the polling organization, UGov.

Peter, when we did our podcast three months ago, you said that your latest date at the time indicated a clear

majority still for membership of the European Union, but that the gap was narrowing.

Three months down the line, what is the current situation as far as your latest data is concerned?

Paul, what we've found were discussing this in late November, and for the last three months, it's late August August we've done something like six or eight surveys

and they've all been within two or three points of one way or the other. It's neck and neck. The variations from neck and neck and

just probably sampling fluctuation. And it's very simple. It was when the refugee crisis hits the television news headlines in August.

That is when opinion changed. And the issue hasn't gone away. It's no longer as prominent in the news, but it hasn't gone away.

So at the moment, a typical poll that you've got-do will say around 40% say they would vote to stay in,

40% would vote to leave the other 20% I don't know or wouldn't vote.

So in other words, the migration crisis, refugee crisis,

indicates in people's minds that it's part of Europe's fault.

Either Europe is part of the problem

because letting all these people through their open borders and they can't solve it. European

leaders can't solve it. Is that the story? That's right. Immigration has been the biggest

national issue in British politics, apart from the economy for two or three years now.

And people fear immigration from the rest of the EU whether it's

EU citizens people from Poland and elsewhere coming to work in Britain or people coming through

Europe you've had the independent stories of the camp at Calais are people ending up in

northern France trying to get through the channel tunnel to come to Britain.

And so this feeds into the agenda of those who would like Britain to leave the EU, saying we'll get control of our borders back.

We'll have the right to say, no, you don't come here.

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