UGO10: The Fourth Turning Is Here: How to Trade the Regime Shift ft. Neil Howe
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 4 March 2026
⏱️ 65 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Cem Karsan sits down with Neil Howe to examine what a true regime shift means for markets and society. Howe argues that we are deep into a Fourth Turning, a generational winter that historically brings institutional fracture, geopolitical strain, and inflation that reshapes debts, assets, and political power. Cem ties that arc to today’s realities: the exhaustion of the 40 year tailwind from falling rates, record valuations meeting refinancing risk, and the uncomfortable truth that 60/40 has failed for long stretches before.
They explore the growing divide between capital and labor, the pivot from globalization to industrial policy, and the rising appeal of commodities, cash, and convex hedges in a world where outcomes are less linear. Howe also details how his Fourth Turning ETF reflects that view, pairing thematic equities with real assets and disciplined tail protection.
This is a conversation about preparing, not predicting, when history starts to rhyme a little louder.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:28 - Introducing Neil Howe and why this conversation matters now
03:37 - What the Fourth Turning is and how the cycle works
10:26 - “The Fourth Turning Is Here” and the practical question: what do we do?
16:42 - Rates, inequality, and why the last 40 years may not repeat
20:17 - Inflation as a crisis tool, not a forecasting error
26:43 - Options, convexity, and non-linear portfolios in regime change
33:31 - The surge into “non-correlated” assets and what it signals
39:39 - Market closures, devaluation, and the limits of buy-the-dip history
45:28 - Commodities as a missing portfolio leg and the volatility debate
48:12 - Howe’s ETF framework: themes, commodities, cash, and tail hedges
52:43 - Timing the crisis, geopolitics, and the authoritarianism question
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You got, you got, you got, |
| 0:05.0 | You got, you bet, you bet your money just got made on sex. |
| 0:11.0 | Welcome to You Got Options, an exciting series right here on Top Traders Unplugged, |
| 0:17.0 | hosted by none other than Jim Carson, one of the sharpest minds when it comes to |
| 0:22.7 | understanding what's really driving market moves beneath the surface. In this series, |
| 0:27.8 | Gem brings his deep expertise and unique perspective honed from years of experience on the |
| 0:33.0 | trading floor to candid conversations with some of the brightest minds in the industry. Together, |
| 0:38.3 | they unpack the shifting tides and underlying forces that move markets and the opportunities they create. |
| 0:44.3 | A quick reminder before we dive in. You got options is for informational and educational purposes only. |
| 0:50.3 | None of the discussions you're about to hear should be considered investment advice. As always, please do your own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions. |
| 1:00.0 | Now, what makes this series truly special is that it's recorded right from the heart of the action on the trading floor of the Sibo. |
| 1:07.0 | That means you might catch a little background buzz. |
| 1:09.0 | Phones ringing, trade or shouting, as Jam and his guests unpack real-world insights in real time. |
| 1:15.5 | We wouldn't have it any other way, because this is as authentic as it gets. |
| 1:19.4 | And with that, it's time to hear from those who live and breathe this complex corner of the markets. |
| 1:24.7 | Here is your host, Gem Carson. |
| 1:28.2 | Hello, and welcome back to You Got Options from the Sibo floor, brought to you by |
| 1:33.0 | High Media and Top Traders Unplugged. Today, we get to talk to no other than Neil Howe, the |
| 1:39.8 | seminal offer of the fourth turning. I've talked about a lot of times. |
| 1:45.0 | Obviously, Neil is well known for it, but we are in a regime change. |
| 1:49.5 | And in regime change, we talk about how distributions change dramatically, the value of |
| 1:54.3 | options in that type of an environment, as well as how to invest and allocate assets |
... |
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