SI390: When Narratives Change Faster Than Markets ft. Alan Dunne
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 7 March 2026
⏱️ 70 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Markets can shift direction faster than the narratives used to explain them. In this episode, Niels and Alan unpack the sharp reversal in bond markets, the geopolitical tensions shaping energy prices, and the role of options flows in keeping equity indices pinned despite rising uncertainty beneath the surface. The conversation moves through recent hedge fund industry discussions in Miami, renewed interest in portable alpha and the total portfolio approach, and the growing influence of AI on economic thinking and policy debates. Along the way, they revisit the core role of trend following in portfolios, explaining why its value often appears precisely when traditional allocations struggle most.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
01:38 – Bond market reversal and shifting macro narratives
03:29 – Options flows and the pinning of equity indices
10:13 – AlphaQuest closure and pressures in short term trading strategies
15:14 – Crisis alpha and how trend differs from a 60/40 portfolio
23:18 – Recent CTA performance and trend opportunities across markets
25:23 – Key takeaways from the Miami hedge fund conference
37:48 – AI, productivity, and the policy dilemma for the Fed
46:40 – Political dynamics behind the potential Fed leadership shift
50:13 – Trend following as the “midfield player” in portfolios
58:08 – Building a portfolio of CTAs and the challenge of tracking indices
01:07:20 – Is CTA beta stable enough to benchmark?
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing |
| 0:07.2 | and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:33.3 | Welcome, welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Alan Don and I, Niels Kastrow Larson, where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:43.3 | Alan, it is great to be back with you this week. Obviously, I was actually with you last week in person in Miami, which was even better, of course. |
| 0:48.3 | And thanks very much for sitting in for the last couple of weeks while I've been stateside. |
| 0:49.4 | But how are you? |
| 0:51.1 | How are things back in Dublin? |
| 1:11.1 | Good, yeah, back into it here, adjusting from all the travels and jet lag and all of that. And yeah, we had some beautiful spring sunshine for a few days there in Dublin. It's kind of back to normal here at the moment, dark and dreary, but at least we saw a glimpse of the spring. And yeah, it was great week last week. Great to catch up at you. |
| 1:13.5 | Great to catch up at so many people in the industry. |
| 1:14.8 | So, yeah, definitely well worth it. |
| 1:15.5 | Yeah, yeah. |
| 1:18.2 | I'm sure we'll touch on this a little bit later in our conversation. |
| 1:21.6 | We do have a pretty solid lineup of topics as well as a question that came in. |
| 1:23.6 | So we'll be tackling this today. |
| 1:26.2 | And as usual, before we dive into any of that, I'm always curious to what's been on your |
| 1:33.4 | radar recently that is outside the topics we're going to be talking about. |
| 1:38.9 | Yeah, it's interesting. |
| 1:39.6 | I mean, last week, you know, the big story was this Cetrini research report about AI and how it was going |
| 1:46.3 | to displace white-collar workers and be a very deflationary, disinflationary force. |
| 1:52.8 | And I mean, a lot of people dismissed it. But we did see bond markets move up last week |
| 1:58.1 | on that kind of disinflationary theme. So it's just noteworthy, |
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