Welcome to Thoughts on the market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Strategy

for Morgan Stanley. And I'm Ellen Zentner, Chief U.S. Economist, and on this

special edition of the podcast, we'll be talking about our 2021 forecast for

the US economy and markets it's Tuesday November 24th at 9 a.m. in New York and it's 2 p.m.

in London so Ellen let's start off at the top. What are you expecting for the

U.S. economy next year and how do you think that differs from some of the other

major forecasts that are out there? So I think what we've been hearing from

clients is that our growth forecasts for next year are so high that

they look more like others bull case.

But I think what's hard to argue with is the shape of growth that we're expecting.

In the near term here, we're going to go through a difficult winter.

We think by the time we turn the corner into the new year will have seen consecutive declines in

consumer spending and all of that related to the renewed restrictions

around COVID. If Matthew Harrison, our biotech analyst, is right, the acceleration in cases

will have stabilized in January. By February and March, you're starting to have it and pick up

an activity and you're moving toward

getting vaccinated for the broad population in April with a second dose in June.

So next year, you know, my sense is that there's this idea out there that the economy will continue

to be be beleaguered until we get past the vaccine, that there's almost this demarcation

and growth from before vaccine, post vaccine.

But one thing that we're looking at, and maybe this comes from the benefit of being able to work so

closely with a biotech analyst on staff.

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