Michael Zezas: The Real Risk of Fed/Treasury Conflict
Thoughts on the Market
Morgan Stanley
4.8 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 25 November 2020
⏱️ 2 minutes
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Summary
A rare open disagreement between the Fed and the Treasury may have policy implications in the longer term. Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research, explains.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezes, head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. |
| 0:09.0 | Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public policy |
| 0:14.3 | and financial markets. |
| 0:15.7 | It's Wednesday, November 25th, 11 a.m. in New York. |
| 0:19.0 | Last week we saw something rare, a public disagreement between the Treasury and the Fed. |
| 0:23.4 | At issue was the Treasury's request that the Fed return unused money in various lending facilities |
| 0:28.0 | that were set up earlier this year to help the economy manage through the pandemic. |
| 0:31.6 | The Fed initially stated it preferred not to return the money |
| 0:34.1 | and keep the facility open, but then eventually agreed to Treasury's request. |
| 0:38.3 | The episode left investors scratching their heads. Since the global financial crisis, we're used to seeing Treasury and the Fed in sync. |
| 0:44.5 | So how meaningful was this disagreement? |
| 0:46.6 | It's unclear that it's a meaningful risk to markets in the short term, but it does say something |
| 0:50.6 | about the enduring challenges to bipartisanship on the issues that may matter to markets even as a new administration takes over. |
| 0:57.0 | That's because the Treasury Fed disagreement reflects a broader disagreement among Republicans and Democrats about the ongoing needs of the economy. |
| 1:04.4 | Key Senate Republicans applauded the Treasury's decision on the basis that the facilities had served their purpose |
| 1:09.7 | and the money could now be used for more targeted COVID relief. |
| 1:13.0 | Democrats appear to be on a different page, arguing that the money should stay with the Fed as a |
| 1:16.7 | backstop and new money should be appropriated for COVID relief. |
| 1:20.4 | This is a microcosm of the broader disagreement on the size and scope of a COVID stimulus package, |
| 1:25.2 | where the parties remain about one and a half trillion dollars apart on the size of a bill. |
| 1:29.2 | We think they can eventually overcome this gap on the issue of COVID relief, but the broader point is this. |
| 1:34.0 | If government control remains divided, no legislation is going to come easy. |
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