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Science Quickly

U.S. Flu Spread Counts On Southern Cold Snaps

Science Quickly

Scientific American

Science

4.41.4K Ratings

🗓️ 21 March 2018

⏱️ 3 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

A multifactorial analysis finds that the ignition of a flu epidemic stems from a blast of colder weather striking an otherwise warm, humid, urban environment, and driving people indoors into close quarters.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is Scientific Americans 60 Second Science.

0:05.0

I'm Karen Hopkins.

0:07.0

If you've got the flu, your focus is on getting better,

0:10.0

not on how you caught it.

0:11.0

But from a public health standpoint, tracking how flu spreads can help keep the virus contained.

0:17.0

In the past, models predicting the path of epidemics have focused on travel by plane,

0:22.0

in some cases combining data on population density with airport locations.

0:26.0

And when studies showed that influenza transmission is modulated by humidity,

0:30.0

scientists injected information on climate into the mix.

0:34.0

Now, a new study combines data on a variety of factors,

0:38.0

from doctor's visits and vaccination coverage,

0:40.0

to weather patterns in the movement of individuals as recorded by Twitter.

0:45.0

The finding, in the U.S. influenza typically arises in the warm humid conditions of the South

0:51.0

and spreads quickly thanks to the high degree of social connectivity in the region. of the

0:55.0

research quickly, the high degree of social connectivity in the region. The finding is in the journal E-Life.

0:58.0

The researcher started by pouring over health care records

1:00.0

from more than 40 million families, looking for reports of flu-like symptoms.

1:05.4

The analysis covered nine seasons worth of data from 2003 to 2011.

1:11.3

And it pointed toward outbreak starting near the Gulf of Mexico or the southern Atlantic,

1:15.8

a surge that seemed to coincide with the southward migration of ducks.

1:20.5

We did our first analysis and indeed looked like ducks could be possible carriers of the virus,

1:28.0

starting spark of the influenza epidemic.

...

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