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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

U.S.-China: more decoupling ahead?

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 9 May 2023

⏱️ 26 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China have been running high for some time, but are escalating as President Biden prepares to unveil further curbs on U.S. investment to China ahead of this month’s G7 Summit. In this episode, which breaks down Goldman Sachs Research’s recent Top of Mind report, “U.S.-China: more decoupling ahead,” Harvard’s Graham Allison, who has extensively studied the relationship between the two countries, and Rhodium Group’s Dan Rosen, who has analyzed investment and trade flows, explore the tensions between the two countries and how they’re affecting the investing landscape for companies and investors.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Geopolitical tensions between the US and China have a running high for some time.

0:04.6

The trade war between the two countries has been ongoing since 2017.

0:08.9

But the US's doubting of a suspected Chinese spy balloon earlier this year,

0:13.0

increasingly hostile rhetoric between the two countries,

0:16.0

and President Biden's plans to unveil further curves on U.S. investment to China

0:20.0

ahead of this month's G7 summit

0:22.0

have brought the tensions and their

0:24.0

economic and investing implications back into focus. I'm Allison Nathan and

0:28.8

this is Goldman Sachs exchanges. changes.

0:33.0

On this special episode, we're breaking down our most recent top of my report,

0:39.0

now available on GS.com.

0:41.0

We dig into the tensions and crucially how they're affecting the investability landscape

0:45.5

between the two countries for companies and investors.

0:48.7

We speak with Harvard's Graham Allison, who's extensively studied and documented the US-China relationship, and

0:54.5

Rhodium group Stan Rosen, who's done a lot of work tracking and

0:57.5

evaluating US-China investment and trade flows.

1:00.7

We first asked Allison about what's behind the recent rise in US-China tensions, which he actually predicted in his 2017 book,

1:07.5

Destin for War. He explains that the rise in hostilities comes as no surprise because history has showed time and time again

1:14.8

that such hostilities occur whenever a rapidly rising power has seriously threatened to

1:19.4

displace a major ruling power.

1:21.8

He refers to this as a Thucydian rivalry.

1:24.7

How would you describe the current state of US-China relations and how does that compare

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