The ongoing confirmation hearings for RFK Jr., Kash Patel, and Tulsi Gabbard have been largely predictable. But as always, the real story isn’t the grandstanding—it’s in the quiet calculations happening behind the scenes.

This was RFK Jr.'s second day facing the Senate, and the discussion largely revolved around his past statements on vaccines. But if you’re looking for movement in the room, there wasn’t much. Coverage focused on explosive exchanges between Democrats and the nominees, but that’s irrelevant. The Democrats can all vote no, and it won’t change a thing. What matters is what Republicans are saying—and there’s little indication that they are going to vote against RFK Jr.

RFK Jr. remains politically resilient for two reasons:

* The Kennedy name still holds value with a broad swath of Americans.

* His skepticism of Big Pharma and Big Agriculture resonates with a coalition that includes both libertarians and "crunchy moms"

The main Republican angle of attack was always going to be abortion. RFK Jr. has been pro-choice his entire life, but now he’s taking orders from a pro-life president. How does that play out? He faced questions about the abortion pill but gave answers that were lukewarm at best.

My assumption: He’s moving forward.

Kash Patel’s hearing was predictably contentious, with heated exchanges involving Adam Schiff and Amy Klobuchar. But, again, those don’t matter. He also had solid support from Republican lawmakers, which means his confirmation is essentially a done deal.

If Matt Gaetz was a non-starter because of his long list of enemies, Patel should have had similar problems—he’s burned plenty of bridges. The difference? Patel has a history in law enforcement, whereas Gaetz does not. That seems to be enough to push him through.

This is where things get interesting. Unlike RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard doesn’t have the built-in advantage of a famous name. Unlike Patel, she lacks a Republican establishment safety net. And unlike both of them, she has a real opposition force: the intelligence community.

Tulsi has been one of the most vocal critics of the intelligence agencies, particularly regarding FISA Section 702, which she argues enables domestic surveillance. She’s also expressed support for Edward Snowden—a major red flag for the very institutions she’d be overseeing as Director of National Intelligence.

Her hearing featured a bipartisan focus on one specific issue: Would she call Snowden a traitor?

She wouldn’t.

She acknowledged that Snowden broke the law, that there were other ways he could have exposed government overreach. But she refused to use the word “traitor.” And that, oddly enough, might be the line that sinks her.

It speaks to a deeper issue of symbolic politics. It wasn’t enough to condemn Snowden’s actions—she needed to emotionally brand him as a traitor. Her refusal to do so is revealing because it suggests that there are Republicans who may see her as too much of a risk to intelligence operations.

Looking at prediction markets like Polymarket:

* Kash Patel is sitting comfortably at 95%.

* RFK Jr. has dipped slightly from 78% to 75%, but still strong.

* Tulsi Gabbard is now underwater at 44%.

That’s not a good place to be.

Gabbard’s nomination has created one of the strangest coalitions in modern politics—hardcore MAGA figures lining up alongside Tom Cotton and Meghan McCain. But if Trump’s team is going to throw its weight behind any nominee, it’ll likely be her. The next 72 hours will tell us if she has the votes or if this is where the process stalls.

Not a ton of surprises overall, but one question remains: Will the Trump administration go all in on Tulsi?

We’ll see.

In this episode we also have a great chat with Michael Tracey who makes his Px3 debut. I wanted to talk to him about current events but we wound up spending the whole hour rehashing the 2024 campaign.

Chapters

00:00 Intro

02:30 Confirmation Hearing Chaos: Tulsi Looks Wounded

14:17 UPDATE: Potomac Crash and Vivek Monster Ohio Numbers

23:34 Michael Tracey

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