Tuesday - September 9, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 9 September 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Daily Market Update: Record Closes and Economic Revisions
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the record-high closes on the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq, noting a significant boost in the last 30 minutes of trading. He reviews year-to-date market performance and the recent revision in non-farm payroll numbers, which saw a considerable downward adjustment. The episode also covers the unusual yield curve movements, expectations for potential Fed rate cuts, and upcoming economic indicators such as the PPI and CPI numbers. Additionally, small business optimism has ticked up, reflecting a more confident outlook. The bond market's reaction, particularly the decline in 10-year yields, is analyzed, indicating potential continued strength in long-duration investments.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
01:02 Employment Data and Revisions
02:24 Yield Curve and Interest Rates
03:20 Economic Indicators and Small Business Sentiment
03:59 Bond Market and Long Duration Investments
04:40 Conclusion and Upcoming Events
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.0 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, September the 9th. Brian Saitel is with you back here again today on a record close for the Dow |
| 0:24.9 | S&P and the NASDAQ on the day. And actually a lot of that for the trading session, at least, |
| 0:29.9 | really came in the last 30 minutes or so of trading. But we closed at the highs for the day, |
| 0:34.1 | up modestly. We had the Dow up 196 up 196 points SMP was up a quarter of a |
| 0:40.9 | percent NASDAQ was up 0.37 percent so that puts year-to-date numbers in the range of about |
| 0:47.6 | 8 percent on the Dow about 11 percent on the S&P and about 13 and a half or so on the NASDAQ. So for whatever it's worth, |
| 0:56.4 | and for all of the folks that have doubted this market and the political regime and interest |
| 1:01.2 | rate policy and geopolitical events and all the different things, health, all this stuff, |
| 1:07.7 | the market just continues to climb that wall oforry on the year. And you're starting |
| 1:11.6 | to see that flow into the bond market a little too. You've got a revision on the BLS number |
| 1:17.3 | that was larger than expected to the downside. So this is the non-farm payroll number that we just |
| 1:23.1 | got and that was revised lower by 911,000. That's for the year, though. So that's taking basically April |
| 1:31.1 | through March of 24 to 25 and taking it off about 911,000. It's about 0.6% or so on the employment |
| 1:38.0 | rate. So it's a big deal. Although what was expected was about 800,000, the starkest view of what was going to get revised was about a million. |
| 1:47.3 | The attribution of what was revised was kind of across the board, but you had a large part of it in transportation, about 226,000 of it. |
| 1:56.9 | Leisure hospitality, which has really seen a big amount of hiring, is also volatile. |
| 2:01.7 | A lot of part-time employment there, but you've got $176,000 revision lower, and then manufacturing |
| 2:07.8 | was only lower by about $100,000, a little less, $95,000. |
| 2:12.4 | Now, for context, you've had negative revisions now for every year for the past three, four |
| 2:17.2 | years. So you've |
| 2:17.9 | had, last year I think was in the 800s, year before that was in the mid-300s. So this isn't |
... |
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