Tuesday - September 23, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 23 September 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Market Insights and Economic Updates - Sep 23, 2025
On this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from Newport Beach, covering down markets with the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq all experiencing declines. There was a notable rotation between growth technology and value names, with interest rates moving lower. Flash PMI numbers for manufacturing and services were discussed, both indicating expansion but with slight drops from the previous month. The Richmond Fed Index saw a significant decline. The episode also delves into the AI investment story and its impact on valuations. Looking ahead, several economic indicators are expected, including new home sales data, durable goods, wholesale inventories, GDP estimates, and initial jobless claims.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:35 Interest Rates and Fed Expectations
01:38 Economic Indicators and PMI Numbers
02:33 AI Investment and Market Valuations
03:27 Passive Investing and Market Dynamics
04:23 Upcoming Economic Calendar
04:49 Conclusion and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe this Tuesday, September the 23rd. Brian Saitel with you here from our Newport Beach, California office here at the Bonson Group. |
| 0:22.4 | On a bit of a down day in markets, the Dow was down 88 points, S&P down 5 tenths of a percent, |
| 0:30.3 | NASDAQ was down a little over 9 tenths of a percent. |
| 0:33.5 | So it's a much bigger selloff today in some growth technology names and relative outperformance |
| 0:38.5 | and some of the value names. |
| 0:40.5 | The equal weight S&P 500 outperformed the cap weighted by about, looks like 70 basis points. |
| 0:46.2 | So it's a decent rotation day. |
| 0:48.1 | And interestingly, it was a day in which interest rates moved lower. |
| 0:51.8 | We've seen that correlation between the opposite, which is lower |
| 0:54.8 | interest rates means all the shiny stuff goes up more like technology and crypto and this stuff. |
| 0:59.0 | Today was the opposite. Ten year was down four basis points on the day. We're now back to 411. |
| 1:06.0 | If you remember intraday on Fed announcement day last week, we broke 4% and rallied up towards, |
| 1:13.0 | call it 415, something like that, and are now kind of slowly moving back lower. |
| 1:18.4 | The expectations on Fed rates for the end of 25 are actually right now, 40 basis points lower |
| 1:25.7 | before the end of the year. |
| 1:28.8 | So we'll call that two rate cuts. |
| 1:34.3 | And then also out on some of the different Fed speak, there's another roughly 75 basis points priced and lower through the end of next year. So with some decent dubs out there, comments from |
| 1:39.9 | different Fed presidents to the low side, citing the labor market risk is more important than the |
| 1:45.1 | inflation risk. Time will tell. We'll get some more numbers and some more data in the meantime. |
| 1:50.7 | We had an economic number or two of them out on the PMI number. So these are flash numbers, |
| 1:55.8 | meaning they're kind of a preliminary read. But the flash manufacturing PMI index was basically in line. We got a 52 on |
... |
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