Monday - September 22, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 22 September 2025
⏱️ 17 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4n9Rw7O
Market Recap and Policy Insights: Navigating Nuances in the Economy
In this episode of the Monday Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen provides a detailed analysis of the market activities and public policy updates. Broadcasting from Newport Beach, David discusses his recent travels and highlights from Dividend Cafe's special issue on The Fed. The episode delves into market movements, noting a tech sector surge led by Nvidia and the rare divergence of communication services. Other topics include a notable drop in rent prices, impacts of new tariffs on American businesses, and updates on public policy announcements such as the H1B visa fee and the U.S.-China TikTok deal. David also covers the anticipated government shutdown and its potential market implications, along with other significant economic indicators like oil prices and bond yields. The show wraps up with insights on the intertwining of monetary policy and government debt.
00:00 Introduction and Recent Travels
00:42 Market Recap: A Mixed Monday
01:54 Technology and Communication Services Performance
03:42 Small Cap vs. Large Cap Earnings Growth
06:12 Public Policy Updates: H1B Visas and TikTok Deal
09:10 Government Shutdown and Tariff Revenue
11:08 Housing Market Insights and Fed Policy
14:52 Conclusion and Upcoming Events
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.5 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.4 | Well, hello and welcome to the Monday Dividend Cafe. |
| 0:16.1 | I am your host, David Bonson. |
| 0:18.7 | I am sitting in our studio in our beautiful Newport Beach headquarters where I came back over the weekend after being in, where have I been over the last week and a half? |
| 0:30.2 | New York City, Houston, Nashville, Washington, D.C., New York again, and now here back in Southern California for a few days |
| 0:39.4 | before returning to New York in a few more days. And so there is a lot that I want to go through |
| 0:46.1 | today. It's not an excessively busy Monday, but it's not a dead Monday either. There's a little |
| 0:51.4 | bit more of a focus today and some of the public policy stuff. |
| 0:55.5 | Let's go through the market recap. Before I get there, as always, I just want to remind everyone |
| 1:00.4 | our main dividend cafe that comes out every single Friday. I want to point you to this last |
| 1:06.7 | Friday's dividend cafe that was a kind of special issue on the Fed. A lot of questions |
| 1:11.2 | are out there right now about our projections on what the Fed's doing, what we believe it means |
| 1:16.1 | in terms of what the Fed has already done, how we're thinking about it in terms of investment policy. |
| 1:21.6 | And I think I answered all of those things in one sort of omnibus Fed dividend Cafe on Friday. So do check that out. The market had |
| 1:32.0 | opened down about 300 points today on the Dow. Futures were down last night as I was going to |
| 1:37.7 | bed. They were down this morning when I was up. And then the market spent almost the whole day just |
| 1:42.9 | sort of recovering. And ultimately the Dow closed |
| 1:45.8 | up 66 points. The S&P was up 0.4%. The NASDAQ was up 0.7%. Lots of names were down. I didn't look at |
| 1:56.1 | the advance decline line today. I imagine when I see it in the morning, though, it'll be negative on the day. |
| 2:01.4 | I don't think there was great breadth on the day, but I think a couple names pulled the market |
| 2:06.4 | in positive territory. It's odd, though. I talk so much about technology as a sector, |
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