Tuesday - May 12, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 12 May 2026
⏱️ 8 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Brian Szytel recaps a modest down day in markets after recent all-time highs, noting the Dow slightly positive while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell, with year-to-date gains still strong. He explains that high-momentum semiconductor and tech names sold off as longer-duration stocks reacted to higher interest rates, driven partly by rising energy prices; the 10-year yield moved up to about 4.45% and expectations for a Fed rate cut this year have faded. He reviews the latest CPI report: headline inflation came in as expected at 0.6% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, while core CPI was slightly above expectations at 0.4% and 2.8%, with a shelter-data quirk cited. He discusses how elevated oil and gasoline prices tied to Middle East tensions could pressure consumers and earnings, though consumer balance sheets and corporate earnings remain strong. He also notes the NFIB small business survey near 95 and addresses a question about Kevin Warsh’s investment disclosures, dismissing concerns as overblown.
00:00 Market Recap Snapshot
00:51 Momentum Stocks Pullback
01:20 Rates Rise on Oil
01:56 CPI Breakdown Explained
03:17 Energy Shock and Consumers
04:20 NFIB Small Business Read
04:40 Warsh Fed Chair Controversy
06:11 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Good evening and welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel with you here as your host. |
| 0:19.0 | As always here on Tuesday, May the 12th, on down day overall |
| 0:23.6 | in markets, we've basically been closing last couple of days at all-time highs. So take one down |
| 0:29.9 | day for what it is, which is just a blip. And actually, in today's move lower, the Dow is actually |
| 0:35.6 | slightly positive. So the Dow was actually up 56 points. |
| 0:39.2 | S&P was down about 15 basis points. Nasdaq was down about 7 tenths of a percent. On the year, |
| 0:45.6 | that puts the Dow close to about 375 up, and then you've got S&P up about 8.5% and NASDAQ up about |
| 0:53.9 | 12 and a quarter. |
| 0:55.4 | So this is definitely not a bad year here. |
| 0:57.6 | This is markets that are quite resilient in the face of a whole lot of things. |
| 1:01.2 | And let's walk through that a little bit. |
| 1:03.6 | But what sold off today was a lot of the momentum trades. |
| 1:06.5 | So think about the semis and the semiconductor equipment names. |
| 1:10.3 | A lot of those names have just been |
| 1:11.7 | screaming year to date and those things pull back sharply today. And there's a reason for that. |
| 1:15.8 | A lot of those momentum names and those technology stocks are considered longer duration plays |
| 1:20.8 | because the amount of time it'll take to have something trading at 50 times earnings to actually |
| 1:25.5 | grow into that is a longer trade to come to fruition. And so they tend to be more sensitive to interest rates. Today you had interest rates move higher. Part of that was because of energy prices moving higher. We had die up about 4%. And so you have the 10-year up about four basis points on the day. We're now at about 4.45 on the 10-year yield. And for a very long time, |
| 1:46.1 | we were in the 420s, if not the low 430. So rates have creeped a little higher. The odds of a Fed |
| 1:52.0 | rate cut for this year are basically off of the table. In fact, there's a small chance for a rate |
| 1:56.6 | hike. And so interest rates have just moved a little higher because of that inflation component |
... |
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