Monday - May 11, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 11 May 2026
⏱️ 19 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Resx8f
From New York City, this Monday Dividend Cafe covers markets’ growing desensitization to Iran-related news even as oil nears $98.50, the 10-year yield rises to ~4.41%, and major indices sit at all-time highs. The S&P 500 appears expensive across valuation metrics, with dividend yield near a historic low (~1.08%), highlighting reliance on price returns versus cash income. The host argues earnings are currently driving markets, but notes a caveat: “other income” was 34% of net income, boosted by hyperscalers marking up private AI holdings. He reviews sector performance (energy best, communication services worst), policy items (possible reconciliation bill ideas like indexing capital gains to inflation; Virginia redistricting ruling; SEC exploring semi-annual reporting), economic data (115k jobs; weak manufacturing; low consumer confidence), housing trends, Fed leadership transition to Kevin Warsh, and rising longer-dated oil price expectations.
00:00 Welcome and Agenda
01:57 S&P Valuations Warning
03:56 Dividend Yield at Lows
05:53 Iran Risk Ignored
07:47 Earnings Driving Markets
08:23 Earnings Caveat AI
09:54 Geopolitics Headlines
10:32 Policy and Taxes Update
12:34 SEC Reporting Shift
13:00 Jobs and Consumers
14:21 Beef Tariffs Note
14:40 Housing Market Pulse
15:17 Fed Leadership Change
15:32 Oil Curve Backwardation
16:20 Ask TBG and Wrap Up
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Hello and welcome to the Monday edition of Dividing Cafe. I am in New York City and we have a full docket today. |
| 0:21.3 | A lot of fun things to go through, just kind of touching on all the topics that matter. |
| 0:27.1 | And I will just get it out of the way up front. |
| 0:30.1 | I really don't think there's any topic more pertinent to what's going on right now |
| 0:35.6 | than the desensitization of markets to news related |
| 0:41.3 | to Iran. I mean, you would think that if there was a day that markets would have sold off |
| 0:48.5 | saying, okay, it appears hostilities and some kinetic activities are going to be coming back into fray. |
| 0:55.8 | Oil prices clearly are staying stubbornly high and going higher. |
| 1:02.0 | Bond yields have moved even higher, getting back near that 4.5% level on the 10-year. |
| 1:09.0 | You would think that this would be the day. And yet, even today, |
| 1:13.9 | we have all the market indices up a tad and all three market indices at all-time highs. So |
| 1:21.3 | we're going to look into why that is and unpack that a little bit. And of course, do our normal coverage of public |
| 1:29.4 | policy, of housing, of the Fed, of oil and energy, of economic data, all the categories we |
| 1:35.1 | always go through. And it is going to be fun. I'll first say, Friday's Dividing Cafe, if you |
| 1:41.6 | missed it, is one I would really encourage you to check out, Dividendoncafe.com, |
| 1:45.9 | where I look at the deal done between Fox and Disney in 2019, and ask the very simple question, |
| 1:54.3 | what is in that transaction that investors like us can learn from? I think it's a fun history lesson, but an even more fun |
| 2:04.3 | investing lesson. So check out Dividing Cafe from Friday. Okay. First of all, I'm going to put a chart |
| 2:10.9 | up on the screen right now that looks at a number of valuation metrics related to the S&P 500. |
| 2:20.3 | And what I would suggest this shows whether or not you're looking at the forward PE, |
| 2:26.5 | which I think is generally the most common and probably the most useful valuation metric, |
... |
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