Tuesday - March 31, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 31 March 2026
⏱️ 6 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Tuesday, March 31, recapping a broad market rally with the S&P 500 up about 2%, the Nasdaq up about 3%, and bonds higher as the 10-year yield fell roughly 3.5 bps to around 4.30%. He says headline-driven moves and short covering are fueling volatility, noting markets react to shifting commentary about a potential end to the war and the Strait of Hormuz. He addresses a question about the U.S. stopping oil exports, arguing it’s unlikely, would reduce profits and jobs, and U.S. refineries are largely configured for heavier crude unlike domestic light sweet production, making a shift a decade-long project. Economic updates include the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (+0.2% in January; +1.2% YoY), JOLTS job openings at 6.9 million (in line), and consumer confidence beating in March.
00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:19 Market Rally Recap
00:46 Headlines and Positioning
01:42 Oil Export Thought Experiment
02:31 Housing Price Update
03:13 Jobs and Confidence Data
04:08 Wrap Up and Tomorrow
04:24 Disclosures and Disclaimer
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.0 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel, your host. Today on Tuesday, March the 31st, and big update overall here in markets across the board you had |
| 0:22.6 | S&P up about 2% NASDAQ was actually up about 3% little over that here I'm |
| 0:28.1 | recording this just a few minutes before the close nonetheless across the board |
| 0:31.6 | rally in stocks and broad-based and a little bit more skewed towards some of the |
| 0:36.6 | momentum names some of the growth names. |
| 0:38.3 | You also had a rally in bonds, tens were down about three and a half basis points. |
| 0:42.3 | So you're still floating right at that 430 level there on the 10-year yield. |
| 0:46.3 | The big driver in today's news wasn't necessarily the notion of Taco, Trump always chickens out, |
| 0:52.3 | because he's really just floating things on truth social |
| 0:55.0 | on what could be an end to the war somewhat soon and potentially with the U.S. pulling out of |
| 1:01.2 | the Strait of Hormuz even before it is reopened. Do I think that is very likely? No, but nonetheless, |
| 1:08.1 | markets are not only pricing in the fact that it will or won't happen, |
| 1:11.0 | but just that he will say that it will or won't happen. |
| 1:13.2 | And those things are actually distinctive if you think about it. |
| 1:16.5 | Markets are worried about being overly positioned on one side of the other |
| 1:20.3 | when you can have headlines like this just drive a 2 to 3% move in one day |
| 1:24.2 | that literally rips the faces off of short positioners |
| 1:26.9 | and causes them to cover shorts and fuels the rally in addition to that. So that literally rips the faces off of short positioners and causes them to cover shorts |
| 1:28.5 | and fuels the rally in addition to that. So that's some of the dynamic and like we've said many times, |
| 1:33.2 | trying to really place trades around some of those things or listen to people that can tell you |
| 1:37.9 | definitively which direction it's going to go is kind of just bonkers to us. Question in there today |
... |
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